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Wednesday, October 14, 2015 6:49 AM ET
New wave of monetary easing hits Asia in test of central bank limits

By and

Jun Yang is an editor at SNL Financial and Edward Lane is a senior reporter. The views and opinions expressed in this piece represent only those of the authors and not necessarily those of SNL.

It is starting again.

A new round of monetary easing is underway in Asia, raising questions on how far central banks can go to turn around their economies.

In the past few weeks, central banks in India and Taiwan have cut rates. And on Oct. 14, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which steers the city-state's economy by adjusting foreign exchange rates instead of directly controlling borrowing costs, joined them in deepening easing by slowing the pace of currency appreciation.

There likely is more to come. Many expect the Bank of Japan to expand its asset purchase program at the end of October for the first time in a year, while some economists, such as those at Nomura, think the Bank of Korea will probably cut rates to a new record low in November.

Monetary policymakers in Asia are renewing a campaign to revitalize growth after a wave of rate reductions in early 2015. Between then and now, not much has changed. Economic growth still remains weak in many parts of the region, and countries are failing to stoke stronger inflation, as prices for oil and other commodities stay low.

And signs of a slowdown in China are only making life harder for central bankers.

The question now is what options central banks can fall back on if all the cheap money does not translate into faster growth. The People's Bank of China, for one, is increasingly turning to unconventional stimulus efforts, which some see as quantitative easing of sorts, as the world's second-largest economy is projected to miss the government's growth target again in 2015, despite several rates cuts and reserve requirement reductions.

The PBOC is now expanding a program allowing banks to use loans as collateral to get cheap funding from the central bank for lending to businesses, particularly small ones.

But that measure only highlights the limitations of credit-driven growth. Low borrowing costs can drive companies and individuals to take on too much debt, and if overly leveraged borrowers default in droves, an economy can easily be at risk.

For central banks, spurring lending while keeping indebtedness levels in check is a difficult task. That challenge has been evident in countries from South Korea, where ballooning household debt has been a factor monetary policymakers take into account, to Australia, where a heated property market is a concern.

In an interview with The Asian Banker published Oct. 14, Yves Mersch, a member of the European Central Bank's executive board, said many economies, both in Europe and Asia, may be too reliant on banking systems, and need to develop deeper capital markets.

For now, though, there seems to be little central banks can do to tackle their immediate problems, other than continuing to pump cheap liquidity into their economies.


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