The Center for Liquefied Natural Gas urged natural gas consumers on Oct. 11 not to be "lulled into a false sense of energy security" by the U.S. Energy Information Administration's winter outlook that predicts lower gas bills in the winter of 2006-2007. The trade group further emphasized that because consumption in the United States continues to outpace supply, more LNG imports will be needed to fill the void.

"It's great news that prices will be lower than last year, but we can't allow ourselves to become complacent about the cost of natural gas," Bill Cooper, executive director of CLNG, said in a statement.

He warned of the dangers of relying on another mild winter, like the winter of 2005-2006, to suppress demand.

"If we happen to have a cold winter this year, we'll see higher natural gas prices because we're in such a tight supply and demand balance," Cooper said. "We are at the mercy of the weather, and that's a dangerous place to be as we saw when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out much of the Gulf of Mexico's natural gas production and prices spiked. To rely on one of the most unpredictable elements of the 21st century to determine whether we'll be able to heat our homes and power our industries — that's no way to run a railroad."

On Oct. 10, EIA predicted lower gas prices, though partly offset by increased consumption, should result in lower monthly bills for residential customers in the upcoming winter heating season. The Center for LNG pointed out that prices remain high and may continue to rise.

"If you compare this year's projections [to] historical data as recent as five years ago, the picture is not so rosy," the group said, citing natural gas price increases of 13% from 1996 to 2001 and 62% from 2001 to 2006. The Center also noted a 15% gap between current natural gas consumption and domestic production; a gap, it says, that will increase to 30% by 2030.

"The fact remains that America still consumes more natural gas than it produces," Cooper said. "Building more LNG receiving facilities around the country is the only way to bring in more natural gas and help close the gap, and mitigate the impact rising gas prices have on U.S. industry and the American consumer."