Featured Energy Whitepapers

December 2014 SNL Energy investigates the impact of the EPA's proposed Clean Power Plan on wholesale power prices and generation mix in the Eastern U.S. Drawing on extensive analysis of the CPP and using the SNL Power Forecast as its baseline, SNL Energy projects CO2 prices needed to meet EPA's proposed greenhouse gas reductions. Key findings include the following: Under projected emissions from the SNL Power Forecast, some reductions in CO2 emissions are likely due to retiring coal plants, expansion of renewable energy, and greater dispatch of gas-fired generation; With significant regional variations, prices of CO2 emissions to achieve EPA targets range from $13-29/ton; SNL observed higher prices in a projection using higher natural gas prices than currently expected, and in achieving the 2030 EPA final target level of CO2 emissions.

July 2014 After several years of generation over-supply in the Eastern U.S. due to a combination of gas-fired build-out and low demand growth, SNL Energy finds several indications of an improved investment environment in the next few years. Anticipated coal plant retirements in the PJM Interconnection, the Midcontinent ISO, and even in the New England ISO are expected to tighten reserve margins. At the same time, wintertime supply concerns uncovered during the ‘polar vortex’ events of the winter just ended have improved forward spark spreads. While the boost in asset valuations is salutary, low demand growth and increased renewable generation are likely to serve as headwinds to further margin expansion. Using a combination of market data and fundamental forecasts, SNL Energy investigates the impact market and policy developments have on generation investments.

June 2014 The renewable energy industry is contending with several headwinds, including expiring and increasingly uncertain federal subsidies for renewable energy and flat demand in states most supportive of renewable energy. A few states have taken steps to amend or repeal renewable portfolio standards which would further cloud markets. Nevertheless, near-term generation trends show continued project completion and growth, especially in grid-scale solar generation. SNL Energy analysis indicates that in several markets, existing subsidies and Renewable Energy Certificate markets support continued project development.

December 2013 Market fundamentals and environmental pressures continue to weigh on the coal generating sector as 2013 nears an end. This has culminated in the continued announcement of firm retrofit plans for environmental compliance as well as additional generator retirements. In an initial report published in the spring of 2013, SNL Energy examined expectations for retirements and retrofits in the face of the upcoming EPA Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). To update and build upon that research, SNL Energy utilized new generation modeling tools to identify potential for additional coal retirements in the coming years as well as what impact this might have on electricity and fuel markets.

September 2013 Changes in natural gas production call for deeper analysis, as illustrated in a case study of supply constraints on New England's Algonquin pipeline this past Jan-Feb. SNL Energy's pricing, storage, nominations, and capacity released & contracted provide insights on the market from production to consumer, and the impact heating and power plant demand have on market results

June 2013 The outlook for increasing generation from renewable energy is solid in the near term, with generation expected to grow faster than load in most states with Renewable Portfolio Standards. Several states will continue to make progress toward their compliance goals, joining many states that have already exceeded their original targets by wide margins. The renewable energy sector faces challenges in the medium term, including low demand growth, expiring subsidies, and increased competition from energy efficiency and gas-fired generation. Combined with steadily increasing RPS goals, these trends may make continued progress more difficult after 2015.

February 2013 While the rise in natural gas prices from the lows of 2012 has taken some pressure off of the nation's coal plants, economic displacement of coal generation by gas-fueled plants remains an important aspect of power markets going into 2013. Persistently strong shale-driven natural gas production continues to keep a lid on gas market prices. Current market dynamics look to remain conducive to some economic displacement of coal volumes in 2013 primarily in Eastern markets with some potential remaining for the Midwest ISO. SNL Energy explores the environment for coal to gas switching in the U.S. and estimates potential displacement in 2013.

January 2013 With the notable exception of ERCOT, domestic U.S. power markets continue to be oversupplied. However, expected conditions could change significantly over the next 5-10 years as factors such as unit retirements, new-build generation and demand-side resources could all change the supply/demand balance. SNL Energy takes a look at the supply/demand balance of the major ISO markets in the U.S. and two WECC sub-regions, and forecasts those balances to 2025 while suggesting several major risk factors by region that could alter the forecast.