What are the natural gas bulls thinking?

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There's a lot of doom and gloom these days in the gas patch concerning prices. When you're in a commodity business, the outlook pretty much hinges on the outlook for prices, often more so than production, consumption, exports, imports, interest rates, etc.

At this time of year, the bulls have a lot going for them: mainly, the uncertainty regarding the weather and the winter outlook for the nation and the need for natural gas to fuel homes and businesses. If you look at some of the numbers out there regarding expected heating requirements, it's not hard to be a bull.

A prominent weather forecaster is predicting a plump 2,598 heating degree-days for the United States during December, January and February. Last year, the United States "basked" in just 2,433 during the same period, total winter gas consumption was 1,743 Bcf and spot futures at the end of March were a measly $3.766.

Looks like 2,433 HDDs won't get you much. Take one step back to the winter of 2007-2008. That was a more robust 2,506 HDDs, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration figures. Gas consumption was much stronger at 2,318 Bcf and, get this, spot futures ended March 31, 2008, at $10.101!

At 2,598 HDD, it's not hard to be a bull.