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Section 1: 8-K (8-K - POST EARNINGS CALL, NEW CFO AND ANNUAL MEETING RESULTS)

Document
 
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
 
 
FORM 8-K
 
 
CURRENT REPORT
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): May 8, 2018
 
 
THE MOSAIC COMPANY
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
 
 
 
 
Delaware
 
001-32327
 
20-1026454
(State or other jurisdiction
of incorporation)
 
(Commission
File Number)
 
(IRS Employer
Identification No.)
3033 Campus Drive
Suite E490
Plymouth, Minnesota
 
 
 
 
 
55441
(Address of principal executive offices)
 
(Zip Code)
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (800) 918-8270
Not applicable
(Former Name or Former Address, if Changed Since Last Report)
 
 
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):
 
o
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
o
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
o
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
o
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
¨ Emerging growth company
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.  ¨
 
 




Item 2.02.
Results of Operations.
The following information is being “furnished” in accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing:
 
On May 8, 2018, The Mosaic Company ("Mosaic") hosted a conference call discussing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2018. Furnished herewith as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 and incorporated by reference herein are copies of the transcript of the conference call and slides that were shown during the webcast of the conference call.

Furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.3 and incorporated by reference herein is a copy of a presentation entitled “Investor Information - Second Quarter 2018.”
Item 5.02.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers.
(c) On May 10, 2018, Mosaic announced that, effective June 4, 2018, its Board of Directors ("Board") of Mosaic has named Clint C. Freeland as its Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and designated him as the principal accounting officer of Mosaic. Mr. Freeland will succeed Anthony T. Brausen who has served as Senior Vice President - Finance and interim Chief Financial Officer and also has been designated as Mosaic's principal accounting officer since January 31, 2018. Mr. Brausen will continue as a Senior Advisor and provide support and transition assistance to Mr. Freeland through at least July 2019.
Mr. Freeland, age 49, most recently served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Dynegy, Inc. ("Dynegy") from July 2011 until its merger with Vistra Energy Corp. in April 2018. Mr. Freeland was responsible for Dynegy’s financial affairs, including finance and accounting, treasury, tax and banking and credit agency relationships. Prior to joining Dynegy, Mr. Freeland served as Senior Vice President, Strategy & Financial Structure of NRG Energy, Inc. from February 2009 to July 2011. Mr. Freeland served as NRG’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from February 2008 to February 2009 and its Vice President and Treasurer from April 2006 to February 2008. Prior to joining NRG, Mr. Freeland held various key financial roles within the energy sector. Mr. Freeland graduated from Sewanee, the University of the South and earned his MBA at Vanderbilt University’s Owen Graduate School of Management.
Effective upon Mr. Freeland's first date of employment with Mosaic, the Compensation Committee approved (i) Mr. Freeland's annual base salary of $625,000; (ii) his target bonus under Mosaic’s Management Incentive Plan for 2018 equal to 80% of his annual base salary ; and (iii) a long-term incentive award under Mosaic's 2014 Stock and Incentive Plan (the "2014 Plan") of restricted stock units valued at $1.5 million on the date of grant (based on the closing price of Mosaic's common stock on the New York Stock Exchange on Mr. Freeland's first date of employment with Mosaic) which will vest on the third anniversary of the date of his award provided that he remains an employee of Mosaic.
Mr. Freeland has no family relationships with any director or other officer of Mosaic and has no transactions with Mosaic other than the employment terms described herein.
Item 5.07.
Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders.
At the 2018 Annual Meeting of Stockholder ("Annual Meeting"), Mosaic stockholders (i) elected thirteen directors (Oscar P. Bernardes, Nancy E. Cooper, Gregory L. Ebel, Timothy S. Gitzel, Denise C. Johnson, Emery N. Koenig, Robert L. Lumpkins, William T. Monahan, James ("Joc") C. O'Rourke, David T. Seaton, Steven M. Seibert, Luciano Siani Pires and Kelvin R. Westbrook), each for a term of one year expiring in 2019 or until their respective successors have been duly elected and qualified; (ii) ratified the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm to audit Mosaic’s financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2018; and (iii) approved, on an advisory basis, the compensation of Mosaic’s Named Executive Officers, as described in the Compensation Discussion and Analysis section, the compensation tables and the related narrative disclosures set forth in Mosaic’s proxy statement for the Annual Meeting (the “Say-on-Pay Advisory Proposal”).





The votes cast with respect to each director elected for a term of one year expiring in 2019 are summarized as follows:
Director Name 
 
For  
 
Against  
 

Abstain
 
Broker
Non-Votes  
Oscar P. Bernardes
 
276,684,030

 
18,904,389

 
210,883

 
33,436,093

Nancy E. Cooper
 
291,962,196

 
3,651,733

 
185,373

 
33,436,093

Gregory L. Ebel
 
291,484,185

 
4,117,251

 
197,866

 
33,436,093

Timothy S. Gitzel
 
293,509,917

 
2,093,028

 
196,357

 
33,436,093

Denise C. Johnson
 
293,873,281

 
1,740,274

 
185,747

 
33,436,093

Emery N. Koenig
 
291,370,042

 
4,230,221

 
199,039

 
33,436,093

Robert L. Lumpkins
 
288,373,694

 
7,222,424

 
203,184

 
33,436,093

William T. Monahan
 
290,213,348

 
5,391,562

 
194,392

 
33,436,093

James ("Joc") C. O'Rourke
 
293,565,063

 
2,030,770

 
203,469

 
33,436,093

David T. Seaton
 
293,520,499

 
2,085,465

 
193,338

 
33,436,093

Steven M. Seibert
 
289,076,958

 
6,524,944

 
197,400

 
33,436,093

Luciano Siani Pires
 
292,443,623

 
3,155,976

 
199,703

 
33,436,093

Kelvin R. Westbrook
 
254,682,316

 
40,923,022

 
193,964

 
33,436,093

The votes cast with respect to ratification of the appointment of KPMG LLP as Mosaic’s independent registered public accounting firm to audit Mosaic’s consolidated financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2018 are summarized as follows:
For 
 
Against 
 
Abstained 
 
Broker Non-Votes 
324,057,473
 
4,767,621
 
410,301
 
-
The votes cast with respect to approval, on an advisory basis, of the Say-on-Pay Advisory Proposal are summarized as follows:
For 
 
Against 
 
Abstained 
 
Broker Non-Votes 
279,389,901
 
15,364,089
 
1,045,312
 
33,436,093
Item 9.01.
9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits.
Reference is made to the Exhibit Index hereto with respect to the exhibits furnished herewith. The following exhibits are being “furnished” in accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Exhibit No.
  
Description
 
 
 
99.1
  
 
 
 
99.2
  
 
 
 
99.3
 





SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
THE MOSAIC COMPANY
 
 
 
 
Date: May 11, 2018
 
 
 
By:
 
/s/ Mark J. Isaacson
 
 
 
 
Name:
 
Mark J. Isaacson
 
 
 
 
Title:
 
Senior Vice President, General Counsel
 
 
 
 
 
 
and Corporate Secretary



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Section 2: EX-99.1 (EXHIBIT 99.1 - Q1 2018 EARNINGS CALL TRANSCRIPT)

Exhibit

THE MOSAIC COMPANY
Moderator:    Laura Gagnon
May 8, 2018
8:00 a.m. CT


Operator:
This is conference # 5358806

Operator:
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode. After the company completes their prepared remarks, the lines will be open to take your questions. Your host for today's call is Laura Gagnon, Vice President, Investor Relations of The Mosaic Company. Ms. Gagnon, you may begin.

Laura Gagnon:
Thank you, and welcome to our first quarter 2018 earnings call. Presenting today will be Joc O'Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer. We also have other members of the senior leadership team available to answer your questions after our prepared remarks. The presentation slides we are using during the call are available on our website at mossaicco.com.

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties.

Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release issued yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.




We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our first quarter press release and performance data attached as exhibits to yesterday's Form 8-K filings also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc.

Joc O’Rourke:
Thank you, Laura. Good morning, everyone. Since you've all had ample time to review our results, I will keep my prepared remarks brief and at a high level, so that we can get straight to your questions. Mosaic continued to execute well in the first quarter of 2018, and global markets for our products continued to improve.

Our financial performance for the quarter was impacted by weather and the underperformance of Canadian rail service providers. In both Potash and Phosphates, we came in at the low end of our sales volume guidance due to the late North American spring and the rail-related logistical issues. Including related production curtailment costs, these factors negatively impact the quarter by $0.07 to $0.10 per share.

For the quarter, several notable items resulted in earnings per share of $0.11. On an adjusted basis, Mosaic earned $0.20 per share on net sales of $1.9 billion, both up materially from the first quarter of 2017. We expect to recover most of the deferred sales volumes as the rail issues are resolved and global seasonal demand moves into full swing.

We have three key takeaways for this call. First, we expect strong business performance to continue throughout 2018 and beyond. In spite of an increase in our anticipated effective tax rate from 20 percent to approximately 30 percent, we have increased the midpoint of our full-year earnings per share guidance to reflect strong EBITDA growth, our confidence in the business of environment and our ability to execute.

Second, the underlying performance of our three business units is continuing to reflect significant operational improvements. And third, we are making remarkable



progress in transforming the Mosaic Fertilizantes business in Brazil, and we're excited about the success our teams have delivered in our first quarter of ownership.

Now I'll start with the markets which continued the steady improvement. For the late spring in much of North America has delayed planting, and led to some doubts about the 2018 crop, farmers outside of the U.S. are generally enjoying good economic results. Brazil, as a highlight, economics are excellent with stable commodity prices and a weakening real.

Potash and phosphate prices built on a momentum during the quarter, strong on-farm demand and delayed purchasing in India and Brazil, and other key growing regions, is expected to provide extended price support. It is important to keep in mind that prices usually move seasonally and cyclically. However, we expect those seasonal declines until much later in the year, and we expect the cyclical trend to be positive throughout 2018.

In potash, prices have continued a steady ascent. For the quarter, our average sale price was $239 per tonne, which is up $45 per tonne from the mid-2016 lows. Global demand is strong. In fact, Canpotex is fully committed through June, in spite of the lack of a contract with China. New supply continues to be delayed beyond prior expectations, and now we believe prices will remain firm into the second half of 2018.

Phosphate prices and margins also increased during the quarter, once again belying the theory that supply coming to market in 2017 and 2018 would pressure margins. In fact, average first quarter stripping margins have increased year-over-year from $233 to $262 per tonne. Our actions to remove higher cost production have helped lead to a balanced supply demand picture. Overall, market conditions are constructive, as we expect demand in India and Latin America to increase.

Now, I'll move onto a brief discussion of each of our segments. First, the transformation of Mosaic Fertilizantes in Brazil is well underway and proceeding



according to plan. As a reminder, we expect to achieve $100 million in synergies in 2018, and $275 million in annual savings by 2020.

We are on pace to achieve those numbers with many efficiency generating initiatives implemented, in-process or in the queue. We've already taken actions that will ultimately deliver $100 million in annual savings. It's important to note, however, that these savings will primarily flow through cost of goods sold, and must be recognized in later periods as the inventory is sold. In 2018, we would expect roughly 1/3 of the targeted savings to benefit earnings in the first half of the year, and 2/3 in the second half.

Our second quarter gross margin guidance for the Brazil business considers several competing factors. On the negative side, we expect to take turnarounds during the second quarter, which will increase our production costs. We will see diminishing benefits of purchase accounting adjustments, declining from around $30 million in the first quarter to approximately $20 million.

And we expect a seasonal shift to more sales of lower margin, single super phosphates. On the plus side, as I said, our business transformation is taking hold, which is leading to real efficiencies, market prices and stripping margins have increased for MAP, and the currency exchange has grown more favorable with a beginning Brazilian real.

We've also modified our annual volume guidance for this segment because we missed some intra-segment elimination. The change in guidance does not reflect any change in our expectations for the market or for our business. We are making excellent progress, and we continue to have very positive expectations for the acquisition in Brazil. The region remains extremely promising for the agricultural industry.

In fact, Brazil soybean production provides Mosaic with a good hedge against any ongoing Chinese tariffs on the U.S. soybeans, and helps demonstrates the value of our strategy to build on America's powerhouse.




Our growth momentum in Brazil is the primary driver of our new, higher full-year tax rate guidance. Put simply, we expect a higher performance of our pretax earnings to come from Brazil than our previous guidance has shown. In phosphates, the aggressive transformation of the business is driving material cost reductions without sacrificing our operational excellence or employee safety.

In fact, in the first quarter, we achieved several new daily production records at both our mines and chemical plants as we strive to recover portion of the lost production from idling our higher costs to Plant City facility. Cash cost per tonne in the Florida might rock were $35 in the quarter, the lowest and several years. Our sales volumes came in at the lower end of guidance range as a result of weather and logistics challenges.

Finally, our cost and operating performance remains very strong. Shipment volumes were challenged with significant rail backlog. And in fact, we were at or near containment at all of our mines for part of the quarter, which negatively impacted production by approximately 200,000 tonnes. To reiterate, demand exists for all that product, and we do not believe that we have lost significant sales for 2018. It is just an issue of timing.

Production costs per tonne were roughly flat with a sequential quarter despite the logistics-driven curtailment. Gross margins per tonne were above guidance, as prices remain strong and our business mix was more heavily weighted towards higher-priced granular product.

I should note that our results this quarter reflect the one-time impact of a change in the methodology Canpotex uses to recognize revenue. Under the previous (RevRex) standards, we would've recognized an additional 400,000 tonnes of sales in the first quarter.

Our second quarter guidance reflects the expectation that more lower-priced standard products will be shipped in the quarter. Risks to our volume guidance include a



longer delayed contract with the Chinese customers and persistent problems with rail transport in Canada.

Before I conclude, I would like to provide some insights into our capital philosophy. In essence, our approach allocation has not changed. We seek to maintain a strong balance sheet and maintain our assets, and then we use additional capital to grow the business and generate shareholder return.

The past two years are quite challenging, but we were able to weather the storm while maintaining a strong financial foundation and completing the largest acquisition of our history. Today, with strong and improving market conditions and considerably more efficient operating model, we expect to generate substantial cash, and we expect to use that cash justice prudently as our track record indicates we always have.

We expect to be able to pay down debt so that we can return to our overtime leverage ratio targets. In fact, we are now targeting to pay down $500 million of debt this year, up from our prior estimates, and well ahead of the pace to reach our commitment to pay down $700 million of debt by the end of 2020.

To conclude, this was another good quarter for Mosaic, even as we experienced some external challenges. We are on the right course, managing for cost efficiency across the cycle, while maintaining the ability to capitalize on opportunities that improving markets present, and remaining constantly vigilant to growth opportunities, large and small. We are looking forwards 2018 and beyond.

Now we'll take your questions. Operator?

Operator:
At this time, I’d like to advice everyone, in order to ask a question, press star then one on your telephone keypad. And our first question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Go ahead, please. Your line is open.




Neel Kumar:
This is Neel, calling in for Vincent. Just a question on your outlook for Chinese phosphates expert export. It seems that, that MAP exports has been down so far to the end of 2018. What's your outlook for the rest of the year, and what are you forecasting in terms of Chinese capacity (inaudible)?

Joc O’Rourke:
Thank you, Neel. This is Joc here. I will make a couple of comments and pass this on to Corrine and Mike. But let me reiterate our previous position, which was that our forecast do not have a decrease in China experts sports, per se, although our biases that we expect that those may go down, and certainly, over time, we expect they'll go down.

You to make a note, and I will reiterate that the last six months, these exports are down by 24 percent. But in terms of the first quarter, what I will caution people on -- it is a very small quarter compared to the rest of the year.

The big quarters are the third and the fourth -- I'm sorry, the second and the third quarters, so we will wait before we make any determination. And really, the big factor there is price. If the price is higher, they will be motivated to export more. If the price is lower, they would be probably exporting less. Corrine, Mike?

Corrine Ricard:
Thanks, Joc. Yes. Neel, we are seeing -- the environmental protection of the Yangtze River zone mandate has been widely discussed, and we really are seeing events progressing. There is continued environmental squeeze on all the producers.

We're seeing some rock production at some mines decreasing. And those increased costs for gypsum disposal, as well as these regulations on proximity relative to the river may be causing some plants to require relocation in the future. But as Joc noted, we are seeing stronger margins and economics today. So the decrease that we've seen, the 24 percent drop in the last six months, that's about 1.2 million tonnes.

So again, highlights it's a relatively small quarters in the fourth quarter of '17 and the first quarter of '18. But we really do anticipate that the pace of restructuring will



continue in the Chinese industry as we go forward for the longer-term. Mike, do you have anything to add?

Michael Rahm:
Not a whole lot to add. But I guess, the Chinese, keeps up this space of about 1 million to 1.2 million less exports. It basically is about a -- our number show about 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes hole in the global that we fill from somewhere else. So just to reiterate Joc's point that we haven't factored in a dramatic decline in Chinese exports in order to balance the market.

Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets.

Andrew Wong:
I mean the phosphates market and prices have been pretty healthy at the start of the year, and some of that is because of Chinese exports are lower, and definitely, has been stronger than expected. So can you just share your outlook on phosphate pricing and shipping margins for the back half of the year? And you mentioned that seasonally, we might be a little bit weak, but probably, a little bit better than it has been in the past? And what's implied in your guidance for phosphate pricing, shipping wise?

Joc O’Rourke:
OK, Andrew, thanks. Thanks for the question. I will push this pretty quick to Corrine and Mike, again. But I will say, yes, the phosphates markets have been strong. I think our actions have been part of that by shutting down higher cost production here in the U.S.

We've ensured a well-balanced market, and what we've seen as a result, we believe is a market strip margin that has industry benchmarks -- strip margins that is really moved up in the last couple of months. And we have not seen what we would've normally seen, which is a winter decline, and so we don't see a real decline until very late in the year, if at all. Corrine?

Corrine Ricard:
Yes. I would just reiterate, the global demand growth is very strong. It was strong last year, it was very strong this year. We're forecasting about 1.8 percent further



growth, really led by demand for -- in India, Brazil, Asia, Oceania and Africa -- really strong growth numbers.

We've also seen supply adjustments that Joc talked about with the Plant City idling. But also, we've much slower ramp-ups than expected out of Saudi Arabia and out of Morocco. And that, combined with these lower Chinese exports, are creating a pretty tight SND. And so we're seeing stripping margins at a healthy level for Q1, and we actually are guiding to a little bit higher industry shipping margins in the balance of the year.

Michael Rahm:
Yes. We do calculate a benchmark stripping margin based on published prices. And from January 2016 to the end of last year, that margin traded in a pretty narrow channel, in that 225 to 250 range. And we always said, I think in the last call, that we think fundamentals have changed, as Corrine pointed out, to move that up into kind of the $275 to $300 channel.

And indeed, if you look at the stripping margins, I think, the last week, was approaching $300 -- or $290. So we have moved up basically at these fundamentals. And as we look out for the rest of the year, yes, we're seeing good price momentum in key markets, whether it's Brazil or India. And outlook for raw material costs, with some additional ammonia coming online and sulfur, market coming into a better balance. I think it abodes well for margins in the last half of the year.

Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

Looks like your next question is going to be from the line of Don Carson from Susquehanna.

Don Carson:
Yes, I just wanted to go back to the outlook for (explorable) phosphate supply in the second half of the year. In the Moroccan -- and Mike, you can comment on how you see your Moroccan capacity ramping up, obviously, you have a good window into what's going on with Ma'aden. And what impact did the shipping difficulties in the Mediterranean have on first quarter pricing?




Joc O’Rourke:
Thanks, Don. I'm going to hand that straight to Mike, as also I think as we have hoped.

Michael Rahm:
Yes. I think -- the best way to answer that is just looking at demand growth, some of the supply adjustments and what is the overall supply and demand balance that we see. We're projecting that the demand for the main phosphate products, grows about 1.2 million tonnes.

And if you look at some of the supply changes, we've taken about 1.5 million tonnes off-line with the Plant City idling. And when you look at the ramp-ups of capacity, the George phosphate hub will produce a few more tonnes -- to the hub number three, will produce a few more tonnes of this year. The fourth hub, the startup of that has been delayed, probably until the second half of the year.

But you're probably going to squeeze may be 900,000 tonnes or 1 million tonnes out of there. And then the MPC ramp-up, I think we've indicated the last time that in 2017, it produced about 477,000 tonnes. We think it will produce 1.5 million to 2 million tonnes this year, so there is an incremental tonnage there.

And then if the Chinese continue along this space, where exports are off 1 million tonnes, that basically results in about 1.5 million tonnes supply gap for 2018. And that's why going back to our previous, the previous question, we're not predicting that the world runs out of phosphates.

But what we are predicting is that the supply and demand balance is such, that you're going to have to see somewhat elevated prices and margins, maybe to crimp a little bit of the demand growth, but also stimulate a little bit more supply coming from established producers, whether it's in the U.S. or other places.

Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.




Jeff Zekauskas:
What percentage of your ammonia requirement from CF will you purchase in the first half? Or what's the cadence of those purchases through the year?

Joc O’Rourke:
Thanks, Jeff. I'm going to hand that straight to Corrine, but I can say in broad terms, that with our own production of circa 400,000 tonnes in Louisiana and our off take of 600,000 tonnes, which is paced basically even throughout the year. So our off take at the low end, and today, we'll be taking the low-end from CF, that will be paced evenly throughout the year.

So our own capacity will be somewhere around 1 million to a little bit higher than that -- short tonnes per year, the remainder of that's 0.5 million tonnes we will purchase. That's for Florida, not including Brazil. The other 0.5 million tonnes we'll purchase on the open market, so approximately, 2/3 of our total tonnage will come from either the CF or our own production. Corrine?

Corrine Ricard:
Yes. I don't have much to add to that, Joc, it will be pretty even-paced throughout the year. And we've got our own dedicated logistics shipping, and that requires a steady take pattern.

Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

Adam Samuelson:
Yes. I was hoping to get a little bit more color on the outlook and what's changed. And you took the EPS range for the year up $0.15, at midpoint. Obviously, the tax rate went up in that -- on higher Brazil earnings, but just -- can you calibrate a little bit on how the outlook for potash and phosphate and nitrogen changes -- or the magnitude between the three businesses? I think the resolution to -- I believe, that potash prices will be stronger in the second half than the prior -- and just a little bit more color on the outlook could be helpful.

Joc O’Rourke:
Yes, thanks, Adam. Look, what we're probably seeing today in terms of our EPS outlook going up is as we get more into the year, we're seeing stronger potash and phosphate fundamentals. In potash, we're seeing a good demand picture, low global



inventories, which I could throw at Mike for a second, but also expectations that -- what we're not seeing in the market is a lot of the new production yet.

And so as we get further along in the year, we have more confidence that, that will be later, later on to come. And it's virtually the same for phosphates, where we see great demand around the world and slower come on new production. So what we don't expect to see is any kind of post season weakness that we might, had there been more production coming in.

So really, that's what's driving it. And then of course, as we've now got three to five months in Brazil versus one month at our last earnings call, we now have a much greater faith in achieving our $100 million of synergies, plus the tailwinds of both better pricing and better Brazilian real. And I might throw that to Corrine in terms of the real impact.

Anthony Brausen:
In that -- Joc, I'll add also. We are continuing to have a progress from a production standpoint, from an operational efficiency standpoint We also have the offsets, however, from Q1 and carrying into Q2, the logistics issues, principally, the rail issues in Canada.

And of course, you mentioned -- and I know you mentioned the higher tax rate, which also is impacting us to the downside. But we want to know that from a cash tax standpoint, we're not expecting to pay cash taxes this year. So from a cash flow perspective, that higher tax rate will not impact us.

Joc O’Rourke:
So Adam, to summarize, really it's more confidence in the future of this year and going into the second half of this year than we were able to have at the start of the year.

Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Piken in with Cleveland Research.




Michael Piken:
I was wondering if you could give us an update on how the spring season is going in the U.S. and in particular, we have obviously, a delayed start, but what you're seeing in terms of application rates. And any read you might have on the need for distributors or retailers to have to restock during the spring -- or do you think they already have sufficient inventories?

Joc O’Rourke:
Thanks, Michael. I'm going to push that over to Mike to answer the question. But one thing I will say is -- just recognize that in today's world, the ability to apply fertilizer and plant very rapidly has increased quite a bit even over the last 8 decades. So we think that the ability to catch up is a lot better than it ever was before. Mike, do you want to talk about spring this year?

Michael Rahm:
Yes, sure. Yes, we've got off to a slow start, but we're roughly catching up. You'll probably saw the planting progress numbers from yesterday. The corn planting as of Sunday was 39 percent complete, the soybean planting, about 15 percent complete.

The corn planting is still running a little bit behind the 5-year average, but if you look some key states, like Illinois, Indiana, they are running well ahead of the 5-year average. And in the case of soybeans, we're off to actually a faster start than normal, in terms of planting. So as Joc said, the farmers can sync seeds into the soil pretty quickly with the current technology.

The other point is all of the feedback that we're getting from our account managers are very positive in terms of farmers, applying rates at normal, or even above normal rates. And as we've been saying for a long time, the demand drivers continue are -- continue to look very strong, the world harvested big crops. There's a need to replenish those nutrients.

And secondly, when you look at the affordability Index, P and K continue to be good buys for farmers, and we think that they are actually rebuilding some rates and with higher yield objectives, in some cases, increasing rates. So the season is really shifting into high gear, as we move a little bit further north and the weather cooperates. So I think it's going to be a good spring season.




Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America.

Steve Byrne:
A couple of transportation, logistics questions. What's your outlook for the resolution in the rail issues of the Canadian rail lines in the near term? With respect to your -- to the comment about Canpotex being sold out through June, is that effectively a rail fleet limitation or port handling limitation? What limits of that? And is it that something that can be addressed?

And then lastly, transportation issues in Brazil are meaningful. And is that really just a productivity drag for your business down there? Or does having a distribution business down there represents a value proposition to you?

Joc O’Rourke:
OK, Steve. We're going to take these one at a time. And what I'll do is I'll come back to Brazil in a second after we get Corrine to talk about our outlook for the Canadian railways and what's going on there.

But let me just say, look, the weather-related issues that the Canadian railways faced were definitely seasonal and -- delays because of cold weather and snow, are those we fully expect to recover from. The one that is probably a little more unpredictable is what is the potential for a strike with the Canadian Pacific Rail, and that we really don't have a reasonable place to start in terms of a view.

Corrine, do you just want to talk about how we're shifting those volumes and where that -- when we expect to see those ...

Corrine Ricard:
Sure. As Mike noted, spring season is making up the pace nicely at this point in the quarter. We do have some weather and rail-related tonnage amounts that flipped from first quarter, we think into the balance of the year. But our guidance for the year, as Joc said, is unchanged. We think we'll get that volume back. Canpotex is sold through June.




That's a combination of limitations, both the ability of producers to supply those tonnes given the big North American spring season that's going on, as well as some rail import logistics. Over the long term, it absolutely -- we have -- are working on ways to improve that capacity, so there is more capacity for exports in the future. And I guess Brazil, you want to turn that over, Joc to ...

Joc O’Rourke:
Yes. Let me turn it over to Brazil now. Obviously, our distribution business and the proximity of our new production business to the markets, the key agricultural markets, we think is one of the key competitive advantage that we accomplished through this. And then the improvements in our internal logistics in Brazil are the other area where we can add real values through this acquisition. Rick, do you want to talk a little bit about that?

Richard McLellan:
Yes. Steve, the -- in Brazil, we're seeing some real advantages of the most we make with the product. And when we look in Brazil, about 78 percent of what we moved is by truck. And so when we look across our whole business, we've been able to develop synergies and -- significant synergies, roughly -- at least $5 million of rail -- of movements by truck that we're taking advantage of backhauls, with trucks moving to ports, trucks bringing material that we produce to customers.

And so the optimization of our overall grid for freight has created some pretty significant advantages, and it's one of the key advantages we find will be in both distribution and production in Brazil.

Joc O’Rourke:
Yes. Let me just summarize of that. I think over 10 percent, or around 10 percent of our total synergies and run rates for this year will be created through transportation logistics, particularly the optimization, as Rick said, of new freight grid, and of course, the optimization of the use of the port of Tiplam.

Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonas Oxgaard with Bernstein.




Jonas Oxgaard:
I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more on what you've been doing and seeing now that you've been running the Brazilian assets for almost three months -- of more than three months.

And as a follow-up, I know there was a condition on the purchase that would have you pay an extra payout with high phosphate prices. We clearly seem to be in that territory. I realize it's a good problem to have, but could you talk low bit about how that payout is structured and what you expect to pay out this year?

Joc O’Rourke:
Sure. Thanks, Jonas. Look, let me start with talking about what we're seeing in Brazil. I've been down there a couple times this year already, and Rick's down there, of course, all the time, so we're going to give it over to Rick. But let me summarize.

The trips that Rick and I have taken together -- I guess one of the things that probably encouraging to us is we see the opportunities as probably better than what we had expected, and our confidence in reaching our target is better than what it would've been three months ago. Let me come back to kind of some of the high-level things we are seeing that give is that level of confidence.

First, of course, is the markets are better than what they were even six months ago, which is starting to give us some real tailwinds. But just to put what we've done ourselves already in the first quarter, we have been able to increase productivity at these operations through a combination of de-bottlenecking, recovery improvement, shift changes -- where we're seeing -- and people reduction where we're seeing a total productivity in terms of phosphoric acid for full-time employee of about 43 percent across the business.

And so now our level of confidence that we can get, that $100 million run rate to flow through all the way through COGS this year is quite high. And Rick just talked on the last question about the transport advantages, we start adding those up -- and those give is a great deal of confidence in where we're going long-term in that business. Rick, do you want to talk a little bit more about Brazil in where we (inaudible)?




Richard McLellan:
Yes. Jonas, one of the things that's significant take away in visitors that we've had through are amazed. We're making some pretty significant changes. We've made structural changes at plants.

And in the first month of operation, we've looked at how we look at ships, how we look at different -- we're changing a lot of things in the business. But the energy from the people to support that change is tremendous. There's quite a bit of support.

People see things that need to be changed and needed to be changed. And as we looked and -- looked for this $100 million that we're talking about, run rate for the first quarter, probably over half of would -- came from the bottom up, from the people that are operating our plants, that see the changes that need to be made, and are willing to step up and say, hey, we should think about doing this different.

And this idea of looking to do things different is something we're building on. And it's really quite exciting to see how this will roll into our busier second and third quarters.

Joc O’Rourke:
Your next question was on the provisional payments to Vale based on the market conditions. And yes, we are getting closer to it and I'm going to hand it over to Tony to give you a little more detail on that, yes, Jonas. But I will say is I absolutely agree with you -- both Vale and Mosaic will be truly happy if we have to pay out that contingent payment. So Tony, do you want to talk about the details?

Anthony Brausen:
Certainly, Joc. We, as Joc said, we'll be thrilled if we were in this territory, but don't expect it. In fact, our full-year guidance would have to be higher if we got into the earn out payout levels. And just to illustrate that today's real levels, which is in the 3.50s, we needed an average MAP price for the rest of the year approaching $500 per delivered Brazil. So again, we're not expecting it to reach that level, but we'll be thrilled if it did.

Joc O’Rourke:
Yes, all of our business would greatly benefit from that.




Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

Joel Jackson:
So I think Brazil's going to plan. So what did you sort of learn the last few months that made you change the overall tax guidance from 20 percent to 30 percent, because it looks like phosphates are -- and then what would be your tax guidance for '19?

Joc O’Rourke:
Thanks, Joel. Let me touch on that, and I'm going to hand it over to Tony again, of course. Yes, you're right. We have increased our GAAP effective tax rate from a high 20s -- or sorry, to the high 20s from the low 20s, and it's really driven by a higher mix of earnings from Brazil.

Brazil has a tax rate of 34 percent. And of course, those are no longer deductible against the U.S. taxes, so this new tax law changes in that. And I have to see at this point, we've optimized our operations under the old tax laws, and although we are going to change of that and try to optimize it again on the new tax loss, in the transition, there are some quirks that drive higher taxes.

Now what I would want to re-note though is cash taxes are expected to remain immaterial through 2018. In Brazil, we expect to pay zero tax because we have bad taxes we've previously paid that will offset any of our cash income tax this year. In Canada, depreciation against our Esterhazy mine provides a material cash benefits, allowing us to pay low tax in Canada.

And in the U.S., because of the alternative minimum tax change, we expect to actually receive cash back, and AMT refunds will exceed any cash tax liability. And so that's important to note, but these are not cash taxes, but actual GAAP taxes. Over time, we expect our normalized tax rate to go back to the mid-to low 20s as opposed to where we were before. But certainly, for this year and next year, cash taxes, we expect to remain very close to 0. Tony, what have I got missed there?

Anthony Brausen:
Joc, I think the only thing I'd add is in terms of Joel's question is what's driving the Brazil's earnings movements from our prior forecast is I think accommodation the



synergy realization, that's been talked about already, the improved market prices and the devaluation of the real which benefits us as well.

Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Connelly from Stevens.

Mark Connelly:
Joc, can you give us a little more sense of the kind of synergy gains that you already have in the bag that are going to flow through in 2018? You mentioned the freight being about 10 percent of it. And second question, is there anything different in the MicroEssentials, the demand that's going to cause the volume and that segment to be different than the overall trend in P and K?

Joc O’Rourke:
OK. Thanks, Mark. I'm going to hand a little of this over to Rick, obviously, to talk a little more detail on Brazil, and maybe, Corrine, as well, to touch on some of the global demand issues -- or not issues, but opportunities for MicroEssentials. But let me, at a very high level, bucket some of the synergies we're able to achieve here.

We expect about 48, so call it 50 percent of the total synergies, coming from the operational which I discussed, which are better use of our maintenance time, shift changes which allow more time on the equipment, operational attention, de-bottlenecking. And easy one, we have increased the recovery of phosphoric acid at (inaudible) by simply picking up some areas where we were actually spilling from 1 process stream to another, the (P12-5)

So those things we are doing now -- we're really focused on that. So that's about half of that synergy for this year. The next one is organization, and that's restructuring of the operation, commercial and finance teams, to really take better advantage of the needs and really benchmark against other jurisdictions where the manpower per tonne, let's say, is lower.

The next one is procurement, 15 percent of our expect an earnings will be -- improvement will come from procurement. Supply chain, and Rick talked about those, inland freight optimization, the optimization of the Tiplam is about another 9 percent. And then another 8 percent or so come from commercial improvements,



which is really what is the opportunity between the two, cross-selling and selling more gypsum, selling new products, transferring some of our SSP, from outside suppliers to internal. So all of that stuff is leading to a lot of really good opportunity for us. Rick, do you want to expand on that?

Richard McLellan:
You've got a pretty good list, Joc. And I think the one thing we need to go back and talk about is how we expect this to show up in the P&L as earnings. So we expect that during the first quarter -- first half of the year, we'll see about 1/3 of this $100 million go to the P&L., and the remainder will be in the back half of the year. I think the key piece that (dri) that is we make changes to the operations. They first have to go through inventory, for us to turn it into cash.

Joc O’Rourke:
And your next question, Mark, was on the MicroEssentials trends, and I'm going to get Corrine to talk about it. But I will say that the product continues to do very well, continues to grow. And I suspect it will not be that long until production limitations become the limitation to growth again.

Corrine Ricard:
I would just add, Joc -- great point, we are seeing strong MicroEssentials growth, both in the North America, but also globally. It's interesting to see the very rapid pace of growth in our MicroEssentials and really, all of our premium products internationally, as well as in North America.

Additionally, on price, the market and pricing premiums remain intact for these products. They truly are adding value for farmers. And so I think that's what's really driving the price premiums that we've been able to realize and the demand growth. And Joc is right, it will not be long before we are debating about expanding further for our production capability.

Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jacob Bout from CIBC.

Jacob Bout:
A couple of questions. First, on the rail logistics. Can you just help us with the dynamic of CNR versus CP? My understanding is -- Canpotex is -- roughly 70 percent of it is owned by CP, is that correct? And what is the main carrier to the



U.S.? and how much of the (churn) for you? Second question would be just on the global potash market, commenting on strengths you're seeing there. In your mind, what your big drivers?

Joc O’Rourke:
OK. Thanks, Jacob. Let me start by saying we have a contract for North America through CP. Canpotex does do the majority of their through the Canadian Pacific, with a good portion -- I'm not sure the exact number, Corrine might have the exact number of CM. Clearly, we're hauling to the East Coast, that is an CN haul.

If we're hauling to the West Coast, that is predominantly Canadian Pacific, including our -- if we're hauling to Portland, because that is actually Canadian Pacific, and then traded off to, I think, the UP or something, Corrine, is that correct? But anyway, I'll get Corrine to answer that. And maybe, while she's at it -- or Mike, you can answer the global potash demand question after.

Corrine Ricard:
Yes. And I do not have an exact split on the Canpotex proportion, that is CP versus CN. Certainly, for Mosaic, we are -- have contracts with CP, and that's our primary carrier. And for potash demand, I'll hand it off to Mike.

Michael Rahm:
Yes. If -- potash demand continues to look very robust. As you probably know from the recent statistics, we estimate the demand increased about almost 7 percent in 2017, or over 4 million tonnes to 65 million tonnes.

We think we'll see another 2.6 percent or 1.7 million tonnes increase in 2018. And again, demand growth is fairly broad-based. And we do think, China, after imports being down and implied shipments being down a little bit in 2017, or at lease at lower levels, we'll see a nice rebound there this year.

And then across the board increases, led by -- everywhere from Brazil, where we expect continued growth in demand, as soybean acres now continues to increase a little bit -- there, Indonesia, Malaysia, all of the majors, accounting for the bulk of the growth. But the bottom line is we think the 2.6 percent, which is right in line with our long-term CAGR of about 2.5 percent over the next five years.




Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Roberts with UBS.

John Roberts:
Could you discuss the benefits of purchase accounting adjustments on inventory of 30 million in the first quarter and 20 million in the second quarter? I normally think that it's a headwind rather than a tailwind, when you write up a quite inventory because when you sell at you don't have any profit initially. So how are you getting a benefit there?

Joc O’Rourke:
Thanks, John. I'm going to hand that straight to Tony to explain. But I can tell you in broad terms that you're right. Normally, that is a tailwind. However, there is some high-priced inventory that was revalued on the purchase. And Tony, do you want to talk about that?

Anthony Brausen:
Certainly, Joc. You're right, oftentimes, that purchase accounting adjustments heads the opposite direction from, and it's typically a tailwind, as you said. In our case -- or sorry, it's typically a benefit. In our case, it's a tailwind. And the reason for that is that we revalue all of the inventory at a market value in terms of the inventory that was acquired.

So on the day of the acquisition back in January, we acquired inventory that had been produced under the Vale Fertilizantes ownership, and those production costs were higher than market. And so as of the date of the acquisition, we record that inventory at a market value, which was lower than that previous production cost.

So that results in the benefit that you saw in our results which we've disclosed. We also revalue all of the assets, as you may know, from a purchase accounting standpoint. So that affects things like depreciation as well as ARO, accounting asset retirement obligation accounting, a variety of things -- every asset and liability is recorded that market. So there's a number of adjustments included in that -- is the inventory adjustment.




Joc O’Rourke:
Yes. And I can say, in summary to that, John, as you buy this business, you've got to expect a lot of noise in the first couple of quarters. There's just a lot of things that are changing as Tony said, whether it's the change in depreciation rates, change in purchase accounting for inventory considerations.

But in answer to the other piece of your question, I mean, we must say that if you look at pro forma, this business was underperforming, and because of that, it's a little bit than a normal acquisition.

Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson with Scotia Bank.

Oliver Rowe:
It's Oliver Rowe, for Ben. So the phosphates supply gap that you mentioned, to change your decision in restarting in Plant City, do you think that, that project still makes sense in your portfolio? And what sort of, I guess, the phosphate prices or stripping margins do you think you need to make it work?

Joc O’Rourke:
Thanks, Oliver. Let me hit that one rather than getting into too much detail on it. But let me summarize, by idling Plant City and optimizing our phosphate production assets, we effectively tighten the supply, and in spite of new no supply coming on, saw the industry benchmarks increase materially.

So at the same time, this action has also lowered our production costs and allowed us to continue to meet our customer demand. So from our perspective, we think that's pretty good. The net result was a significant increase in our profitability across all of our 16 million tonnes that we produced in our phosphates in both Florida and Mosaic, Fertilizantes in Brazil.

So all I can say at this stage is we will revisit Plant City in the fourth quarter, but we really feel that the -- what we did there was exactly what we needed to do and what the market needed at that time.

Operator:
And our last question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson from Credit Suisse.




Christopher Parkinson:
Just in terms of further developing to Brazilian market, how are you seeing about sort of the long term, especially developing the order in potash as further, and also, just obviously consequently reducing your own costs? Do you foresee yourself as a leader here? And also, the have a quick views on the political front given the elections later this year?

Joc O’Rourke:
Well, thanks, Chris, that's a fair bit to cover. The last one, we could probably talk for hours. But let me start about the Brazilian market development. I think overtime, Northern access and the whole access to the Tocantins area, and call it, Northwest (inaudible) is a -- definitely, it's going to happen, it's a question of when.

And I think as it happens, that's one of the big opportunities, I think for us, particularly on the distributional side because a group that can really get in there and be leaders in that space. So I definitely think we are now the production leader in Brazil.

We are certainly the one of a couple of distribution leaders, and I think that relative size compared to the market, really allows us to take opportunities that others may not be able to do. So I'm going to hand it to Rick to just talk about this a little bit. And he may be able to give you some insight into the politics, although, those are pretty muddy.

Richard McLellan:
Are they ever, Joc? I think as you look at Northern access to Brazil, it is going to grow. And I think the precursor to that is the grain movements that are moving -- that are going there. And year-over-year increase in grain movements has been really quite significant to the northern -- through the northern outlet, which is improving the basis for farmers in the area because they're spending less money on logistics.

The back movement of fertilizer hasn't been growing at the pace because there's infrastructure that needs to be developed. That will be developed over the next couple of years. But in the position where again is both in production and distribution across the major production areas will definitely be involved in the



development of the northern access to the Brazil (inaudible) As far as the politics go, I will stay completely out of it. It's in a state of flux just like a lot of other countries and stay tuned. This one's coming fast.

Joc O’Rourke:
The only other thing I'll say about Brazil is when you talk about politics is despite the economic, political and lack of reform that they're able to get now with sort of a lame-duck government, if you will, with a new election coming this fall, I will say the ag sector has been a real standout, and continues to grow.

And I think this Northwest corridor will really be the next horizon of growth for Brazil and maybe for the world from an agricultural perspective. OK, with that, let, I hear a rumor out there that another company may be reporting today, so I'm going to call it in now and allow you guys to get on with the rest of your day.

But in closing, let me just say a couple of words here, which is first of all, as we look for this year, we see strong EBITDA growth. We are now guiding to $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion in 2018, which is up about 50 percent on the midpoint from last year, so we're seeing some real benefits.

We're starting to see the Mosaic Fertilizantes take a real stand and we now have gone, from expecting it to be somewhat neutral in terms of EPS, to now be accretive to probably in the range of $0.05 to $0.10 accretive and contributed in the range of $300 million of EBITDA to our business.

So we're really starting to see an investment that is going to quickly show real dividends for the company and a real opportunity for growth into the future. So overall, with the markets, we are very confident on the year. We're starting to see some changes that we think are important in the ag space and in our space. But let me conclude then with the three -- reiterate our key messages.

Our businesses did perform well in the first quarter of the year, and we expect strong markets and good execution to continue through 2018. The work we've done and our



doing to transform our potash, phosphates and Fertilizantes business are delivering meaningful, long-term value.

And as I said earlier, we are ahead of schedule in Brazil and we're really excited for the prospects there. So overall, Mosaic is executing very well, markets continue to improve and we are generating substantial momentum. Thank you for joining us today. Have a great day.

Operator:
This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

END


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Section 3: EX-99.2 (EXHIBIT 99.2 - 2018 Q1 EARNINGS CALL PRESENTATION)

a1q18presentationfinal
The Mosaic Company Earnings Conference Call – First Quarter 2018 Joc O’Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer Presenters: Laura Gagnon, Vice President Investor Relations Date: May 8, 2018


 
Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the anticipated benefits and synergies of our acquisition of the global phosphate and potash operations of Vale S.A. previously conducted through Vale Fertilizantes S.A. (which, when combined with our legacy distribution business in Brazil, is now known as Mosaic Fertilizantes) (the “Transaction”), other proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: difficulties with realization of the benefits and synergies of the Transaction, including the risks that the acquired business may not be integrated successfully or that the anticipated synergies or cost or capital expenditure savings from the Transaction may not be fully realized or may take longer to realize than expected, including because of political and economic instability in Brazil or changes in government policy in Brazil; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the performance of the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as MWSPC), the ability of MWSPC to obtain additional planned funding in acceptable amounts and upon acceptable terms, the timely development and commencement of operationsof production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the future success of current plans for MWSPC and any future changes in those plans; the risk that protests against natural resource companies in Peru extend to or impact the Miski Mayo mine, which is operated by an entity in which we are the majority owner; difficulties with realization of the benefits of our long term natural gas based pricing ammonia supply agreement with CF Industries, Inc., including the risk that the cost savings initially anticipated from the agreement may not be fully realized over its term or that the price of natural gas or ammonia during the term are at levels at which thepricingis disadvantageous to Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, or the costs of the MWSPC, its existing or future funding and Mosaic’s commitments in support of such funding; reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, potash mine or other potash shaft mines; other accidents and disruptions involvingMosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. 2


 
Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted diluted net earnings per share guidance. For important information regarding the non-GAAP measures we present, see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” in our May 7, 2018 earnings release and the performance data for the first quarter of 2018 that is available on our website at www.mosaicco.com in the “Financial Information – Quarterly Earnings” section under the “Investors” tab. The earnings release and performance data are also furnished as exhibits to our Current Report on Form 8-K dated May 7, 2018. We are not providing forward looking guidance for U.S. GAAP reported diluted net earnings per share or a quantitative reconciliation of forward-looking non-GAAP EPS. Please see “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” in our May 7, 2018 earnings release for additional information. 3


 
Executive Summary ▪ Raising full year adjusted EBITDA to $1.7B - $1.9B and adjusted EPS guidance 1 to $1.20 - $1.60 per share*: Constructive • Expect to recoup most logistics related shipment delays Outlook • Expect market momentum to continue through 2018 • Ahead of schedule on debt pay-down, targeting $500 million in 2018 2 ▪ Solid execution across three business units, despite logistics related challenges: Strong Execution • Cash costs of mined Florida rock down to $35 per tonne; Cash costs of conversion down to $68 per tonne • MOP cash costs of production flat at $86 per tonne, despite a negative containment related impact 3 ▪ Remarkable progress on Mosaic Fertilizantes transformation: Transformation • Actions taken in Q1’2018 alone expected to deliver $100 million in annualized EBITDA contribution progress • Cadence of realization in 2018: 1/3rd in H1, 2/3rd in H2 *Adjusted EPS guidance now assumes full year effective tax rate of ~30%, up from prior expectation of ~20%. 4


 
Improving Market Conditions Stripping Margin Phosphate and Potash Prices MOP $ Tonne $ Tonne 300 325 Source: Argus 300 275 275 250 250 225 225 200 200 175 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 DAP Stripping Margin MOP cfr Brazil 5


 
Mosaic Fertilizantes First Quarter 2018 Results Guidance 1.3M 1.6M 1.6M Mosaic Fertilizantes Guidance Volumes Q2 Sales Volumes 2.0 to 2.3 million tonnes Q2 Gross Margin per Tonne $20 to $30 per tonne $37* GAAP 2018 Sales Volumes 9.2 to 10.0 million tonnes Margin/Tonne $25 $37 $38 ▪ Q1’18 benefited from impact of acquired inventory. Non GAAP Margin/Tonne ▪ Q2’18 assumptions: maintenance turn-arounds and higher mix of lower margin SSP product; weaker Guidance BRL, stronger MAP prices and higher synergy *Company does not provide GAAP Margin/Tonne Guidance Comments realization. ▪ Full-year sales volume guidance reflects a correction of erroneously included inter-segment sales. Guidance Range Actuals


 
Phosphates First Quarter 2018 Results Guidance 1.9M 1.9M 2.2M Phosphates Guidance Volumes Q2 Sales Volumes 2.1 to 2.4 million tonnes Q2 Gross Margin per Tonne $65 to $75 per tonne GAAP $49* 2018 Sales Volumes 8.2 to 9.0 million tonnes Margin/Tonne $55 $57 $65 ▪ Strong operational performance and Non GAAP market momentum is embedded in Q2’18 Margin/Tonne guidance. Guidance ▪ Full year sales volume guidance assumes Comments some recovery in production lost as a *Company does not provide GAAP Margin/Tonne Guidance. Per finished product tonne. result of idling Plant City. Actuals Guidance Range


 
Potash First Quarter 2018 Results Guidance 1.7M 1.7M 2.0M Potash Guidance Volumes Q2 Sales Volumes 2.1 to 2.4 million tonnes Q2 Gross Margin per Tonne $50 to $60 per tonne $61* GAAP 2018 Sales Volumes 8.2 to 9.0 million tonnes Margin/Tonne ▪ Expect sales volumes and unit costs to be $50 $64$64 Non GAAP negatively impacted in Q2’18 from persistent rail issues. Margin/Tonne ▪ Rail performance and timing of China contract Guidance are key variables for the Q2’18 guidance. *Company does not provide GAAP Margin/Tonne Guidance Comments ▪ Full year sales volume guidance reflects ~400,000 tonne reduction in Q1’18 from Canpotex’ change in revenue recognition methodology. Guidance Range Actuals


 
Capital Allocation Philosophy Further accelerating debt repayment in 2018 9


 
Appendix 10


 
Full Year 2018 Guidance Consolidated Full-Year Guidance 2018 Adjusted Earnings Per Share $1.20 to $1.60* Total SG&A $325 to $350 million Adjusted EBITDA $1.7 to $1.9 billion Capital Expenditures $900 million to $1.1 billion *Reflects an increase of 34 million shares (to 386 million shares) as a result of the completion of the Vale Fertilizantes acquisition. 11


 
Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2018) Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic DAP / MAP / NPS* / Low High (Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding) TSP (Million Tonnes) 2015R 2016R 2017E 2018F 2018F Comments Our forecast for 2018 is little-changed, as we look to see stabilization of domestic phosphate demand after several years of decline. Shipments are projected to tick up modestly as a result of low channel inventories and strong domestic agricultural China 20.1 18.3 17.7 17.7 18.0 commodity prices. Our forecast is more bullish than many third-party expectations, which show a slight decline in demand. Inventories at the start of the year were at the lowest level in three years and have prompted an earlier and stronger return to the market by Indian buyers in Q2. Positive momentum is to projected to continue in 2018, aided by projections for a normal India 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.8 monsoon and a small lift to the MRP to offset the recent decline in the rupee. Updated trade statistics and third-party data led us to pare back our demand estimates for 2017 slightly, but we believe that the region began 2018 with low channel inventories. Assuming normal weather, we expect demand to grow at a moderate Other Asia/Oceania 9.3 8.3 9.2 9.6 9.8 pace in 2018. Our 2017 estimate is revised higher on upward adjustments to shipments across both Europe and Russia. Broadly flat on-farm Europe demand is projected in 2018 from this higher base, though we project a modest drop in shipments due to some destocking of and FSU 4.9 5.5 6.1 5.7 5.9 the distribution pipeline in Europe. Farm economics look very attractive on recent gains in soybean export prices – boosted by both fears of a China/U.S. trade dispute and higher CME prices – and a weakening of the currency. Coupled with good weather, we project that shipments will Brazil 6.9 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.7 continue to trend higher in 2018, rising upwards of 3% y-o-y. We have revised lower our 2017 shipment estimate, but have left our 2018 estimate little-changed with continued profitable Other Latin America 2.8 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.8 farm economics. Despite the late start to spring fieldwork, early indications are that on-farm demand is holding firm. Steady-to-higher application rates are expected in 2018, and our expectations for acreage remain at 90+ million for both corn and soybean area. We are projecting shipments to be very similar to last year’s level, as there was very little pull-forward of shipments into 2017, North America 8.9 9.4 9.8 9.7 9.9 as was apparent with potash. Our forecasts for Africa and the Middle East have seen only modest revisions. We continue to forecast a continuation of Other 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.1 moderate demand growth in these regions in 2018. Our 2017 shipment estimate is slightly higher at 68.5 mmt – an increase of 2.4% or 1.6 mmt from 2016. We maintain our call Total 66.2 66.9 68.5 69.1 71.1 on 2018 shipments of 69-71 mmt, with a current point estimate of 69.8 mmt, a gain of 1.8% or 1.2 mmt. 12


 
Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2018) Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic Muriate of Potash Low High (Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding) Million Tonnes (KCl) 2015 2016 2017E 2018F 2018F Comments 2017 shipments were revised down to 14.6 mmt due to lower production (7.3 mmt production plus 7.3 mmt net imports). 2018 shipments are projected to rebound to 15.8 mmt (7.5 mmt production plus 8.3 mmt net imports) due to high crop prices, moderate China 16.4 14.0 14.6 15.6 15.9 potash prices and low channel stocks especially at NPK plants. CY 2017 shipments were revised down to 4.4 mmt based on the final import statistics. 2018 shipments are forecast to increase to 4.6 mmt due to higher minimum support prices for key crops, moderate K prices, a stable rupee, workable import economics, and initial India 4.1 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.7 forecasts of a normal monsoon this year. 2017 shipments were revised up again based on final import statistics. Shipments are expected to increase in 2018 due to still Indonesia+Malaysia 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.0 5.2 favorable palm oil and rice prices and the expectation of normal rainfall this year. Shipments to this region jumped in 2017 led by big gains in Thailand, and Vietnam. Demand continues buoyed by good weather, Other Asia 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 favorable policies, OK crop prices and moderate K prices. We estimate that shipments dropped in 2017 as a result of elevated channel inventories and the aftermath of the drought in southern W. Europe 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.9 Europe last year. Shipments are forecast to stay in the 4.8 mmt range this year. Shipments here are following the increase in agricultural output. Demand is underpinned by mostly favorable weather, strong local- E. Europe+FSU 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.3 5.5 currency crop prices (bolstered by still weak currencies) and moderate K prices. Based on 2017 ANDA statistics, shipments were revised up to a record 9.7 mmt last year (.49 mmt production plus 9.20 mmt net imports). 2018 shipments are expected to breach the 10.0 mmt mark due to continued good weather and positive agronomic and Brazil 8.8 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.2 economic demand drivers. 2017 shipments were revised up as a result of broad-based gains in Central and other South America countries. Shipments this year Other L. America 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.1 are forecast to stay flat due to continued positive farm economics. 2017 shipments were revised up 1.0 mmt due to another strong fall application season and early positioning of 2018 needs ahead of announced price increases. In 2018, on-farm use is expected to stay flat at higher new normal levels, but shipments are projected to N. America 8.8 9.4 10.5 9.6 9.8 drop to the 9.8 mmt as some tonnage shipped last year. Africa accounted for about two-thirds of the increase last year. Shipments are forecast to increase modestly this year with additional Other 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.9 but less robust gains in Africa, Oceania and the Mideast. Final statistics for 2017 show that shipments surged 6.8% or 4.1 mmt last year. All regions except Western Europe posted gains last Total 61.7 60.9 65.0 65.5 67.5 year. Shipments this year are forecast to increase to 65.5-67.5 mmt with a point estimate of 66.7 mmt, a gain of 2.6% or 1.7 mmt. 13


 
Sensitivity Table: Estimated Full Year Impacts ($ in millions) Impacts to PL: Operating Earnings Δ EPS Δ Average MOP Price --> $10/mt $76 $0.11 Average DAP NA Stripping Margin --> $10/mt $87 $0.16 Average Selling Price Mosaic Fertilizantes Production--> $10/mt $38 $0.07 Potash Sales Volume --> 100k mt $13 $0.02 Phosphates Sales Volume --> 100k mt $10 $0.02 Canadian Dollar Change -->$0.01 $14 $0.03 Brazilian Real Change (no hedging)--> $0.10 $27 $0.05 14


 
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Section 4: EX-99.3 (EXHIBIT 99.3 - INVESTOR INVORMATION - SECOND QUARTER 2018)

investorinformationmay20
Laura Gagnon Vice President Investor Relations Tel 763-577-8213 Cell 612-201-7550 laura.gagnon@mosaicco.com Anton Pshon Director Investor Relations Tel 763-577-2876 Investor Cell 612-834-0988 Information anton.pshon@mosaicco.com Second Quarter 2018 1


 
Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the anticipated benefits and synergies of our acquisition of the global phosphate and potash operations of Vale S.A. previously conducted through Vale Fertilizantes S.A. (which, when combined with our legacy distribution business in Brazil, is now known as Mosaic Fertilizantes) (the “Transaction”), other proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: difficulties with realization of the benefits and synergies of the Transaction, including the risks that the acquired business may not be integrated successfully or that the anticipated synergies or cost or capital expenditure savings from the Transaction may not be fully realized or may take longer to realize than expected, including because of political and economic instability in Brazil or changes in government policy in Brazil; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the performance of the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as MWSPC), the ability of MWSPC to obtain additional planned funding in acceptable amounts and upon acceptable terms, the timely development and commencement of operations of production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the future success of current plans for MWSPC and any future changes in those plans; the risk that protests against natural resource companies in Peru extend to or impact the Miski Mayo mine, which is operated by an entity in which we are the majority owner; difficulties with realization of the benefits of our long term natural gas based pricing ammonia supply agreement with CF Industries, Inc., including the risk that the cost savings initially anticipated from the agreement may not be fully realized over its term or that the price of natural gas or ammonia during the term are atlevelsatwhich the pricing is disadvantageous to Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, or the costs of the MWSPC, its existing or future funding and Mosaic’s commitments in support of such funding; reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, potash mine or other potash shaft mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. 2


 
The Mosaic Company Overview 3


 
Executive Summary ▪ Raising full year adjusted EBITDA to $1.7B - $1.9B and adjusted EPS guidance 1 to $1.20 - $1.60 per share*: Constructive • Expect to recoup most logistics related shipment delays Outlook • Expect market momentum to continue through 2018 • Ahead of schedule on debt pay-down, targeting $500 million in 2018 2 ▪ Solid execution across three business units, despite logistics related challenges: Strong Execution • Cash costs of mined Florida rock down to $35 per tonne; Cash costs of conversion down to $68 per tonne • MOP cash costs of production flat at $86 per tonne, despite a negative containment related impact 3 ▪ Remarkable progress on Mosaic Fertilizantes transformation: Transformation • Actions taken in Q1’2018 alone expected to deliver $100 million in annualized EBITDA contribution progress • Cadence of realization in 2018: 1/3rd in H1, 2/3rd in H2 *Adjusted EPS guidance now assumes full year effective tax rate of ~30%, up from prior expectation of ~20%. 4


 
Mosaic Assets: Global, Long Life, Low Cost Phosphate Production Potash Production Distribution Facilities Joint Ventures 55


 
Transformation: Idled Plant City $/Tonne Conversion Costs Mined Rock Costs $/Tonne $50 $80 $70 $40 $60 $30 $50 $20 $40 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018 Cash Production Costs Cash Conversion Costs * Phosphate cash conversion costs are reflective of actual costs, excluding realized mark-to-market gains and losses. These costs are captured in inventory 6 and are not necessarily reflective of costs included in costs of goods sold for the period.


 
Transformation: Anticipated S&D Impact of Idling Plant City Million Tonnes Forecast Global Phosphate Capacity vs. Shipments DAP/MAP/NPS Cumulative Change 2018-2020 5 Cumulative Net Capacity Growth 4 Cumulative Demand Growth 3 2 1 0 -1 18F 19F 20F Source: CRU and Mosaic Tightened phosphate supply & demand even without expected China capacity rationalization 7


 
Transformation in Potash: Asset Optimization and Cost Control $ Per Tonne Despite Logistics Related Costs $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $- 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018 MOP Cash Production Costs Per Tonne* Brine *MOP cash production costs are reflective of actual costs during the quarter, excluding CRT and realized mark-to-market gains and 8 losses. These costs are captured in inventory and are not necessarily reflective of costs included in costs of goods sold for the period.


 
Transformation in Potash: Expected Elimination of Brine Management Costs Esterhazy Expected Cash Production $/Tonne 16,000 Costs Below $50 per Tonne 90 14,000 80 12,000 70 10,000 8,000 60 6,000 50 4,000 Thousand Ore Tonnes Cash Production Costs 40 2,000 0 30 2013 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F Cash Production Costs / Tonne K1/K2 Ore K3 Ore 9 Forecast as of April 12, 2017 *MOP cash production costs are reflective of actual costs during the quarter, excluding CRT and realized mark-to-market gains and losses. These costs are captured in inventory and are not necessarily reflective of costs included in costs of goods sold for the period.


 
Mosaic Fertilizantes Transformation on Track Mosaic Fertilizantes Transformation Actions taken in Q1’18 $300 expected to generate $100M of value $250 $200 $150 $100 H2 $50 H1 $- H1 2018E 2019E 2020E 10


 
Visible Cost Controls $ Per Tonne Selling, General & Administrative Expenses 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 11 *Does not include the intra-segment volume eliminations, which are negative impacting SG&A/Tonne metric starting in 2018 as a result of the Vale Fertilizantes acquisition


 
Capital Allocation Philosophy Further accelerating debt repayment in 2018 12


 
Tremendous Upside Leverage $3,500 EBITDA $2.9B – $3.1B $3,000 FCF $2.2B $2,500 EBITDA $2.0B – 2.2B – $2.4B EBITDA $1.7B-$1.9B $2,000 FCF $1.3B - $1,500 $1.5B FCF $750M- $1,000 950M $500 $0 2018F EBITDA Scenario 1* Scenario 2** EBITDA FCF *Scenario 1 assumes K3 is fully operational and all Mosaic Fertilizantes synergies are achieved. Prices unchanged from 2018 estimates. **Scenario 2 assumes K3 is fully operational, all Mosaic Fertilizantes synergies are achieved and 8 year average selling prices. EBITDA is defined as net income less income taxes, less interest expense, less depreciation, depletion and amortization Free cash flows is defined as cash flows from operating activities less capital expenditures 13


 
Markets Agricultural Outlook 14


 
Agricultural Fundamentals Begin to Tighten Following a String of Bin-Busting Harvests World Less China Grain and Oilseed Stocks . A big step-up in global production since 2012/13 Mil Tonnes Percent 450 22% Source: USDA 425 21% . But continued strong and steady demand growth 400 20% 375 19% . Stocks ex China increased to a record high in 2016/17 350 18% 325 17% . Inventories ex China projected to decline in 2017/18 300 16% 275 15% 250 14% . Stocks as a percentage of use projected to drop into the 225 13% lower half of the 16%-19% range by the end of 2017/18 200 12% 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E Stocks Percent of Use . The Food Story is not in vogue but it still is intact! 15


 
Mostly Firm Crop Prices Underpin Positive P&K Demand Outlook Corn Prices Soybean Prices HRW Wheat Prices US$ BU US$ BU US$ BU Daily Close of the December Contract (Sep 1 - Aug 31) Daily Close of the November Contract (Sep 1 - Aug 31) Daily Close of the July Contract (Jun 1 - May 31) 4.50 12.00 6.50 Source: CME Source: CME Source: CME 6.25 11.50 4.25 6.00 11.00 5.75 4.00 5.50 10.50 3.75 5.25 10.00 5.00 3.50 9.50 4.75 4.50 3.25 9.00 4.25 3.00 8.50 4.00 SONDJFMAMJJA SONDJFMAMJJA JJASONDJFMAM 2018 2017 2016 2018 2017 2016 2018 2017 2016 US$ Rice Prices Malaysian Palm Oil Prices Sugar Prices Cotton Prices Rngts US$ US$ CWT Daily Close of Nearby Option Daily Clos e of Ne ar by Option CWT Daily Close of Nearby Option Daily Clos e of Ne ar by Option Tonne CWT 13.5 3,000 16 87.5 Source: NYMEX Source: NYMEX Source: CRB Source: NYMEX 2,900 85.0 13.0 15 82.5 2,800 80.0 12.5 2,700 14 77.5 12.0 2,600 75.0 13 2,500 72.5 11.5 70.0 2,400 12 67.5 11.0 2,300 16 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 11 65.0 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18


 
Positive Agronomic & Economic Demand Drivers Record Harvests Remove Record Amounts of P&K Plant Nutrients Still Affordable World Grain and Oilseed Production Bil Tonnes Plant Nutrient Affordability Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index 3.2 1.00 Source: USDA Less Affordable 3.0 0.90 2.8 0.80 2.6 0.70 2.4 0.60 2.2 0.50 Source: Weekly Price Publications, CME, More Affordable 2.0 USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 0.40 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Estimated World Grain & Oilseed Nutrient Removal Index Average 2010-17 2007-12 2013-17 Percent Stoop Stoop Mil Tonnes (2.74 bmt) (3,06 bmt) Change Change N Removal 59.3 66.2 6.9 11.6% P2O5 Removal 22.9 25.4 2.5 10.9% K2O Removal 19.2 21.5 2.2 11.7% Source: USDA, IPNI, M osaic 17


 
Brazil Farmers Benefit from the Argentine Drought, a Weaker Real, and the Threat of a U.S.-China Trade War Cents Bu Soybean Premium at Paranaguá Port 225 200 175 Soybean Premium at Paranaguá Port 150 Four-Year Cents Bu 125 2018 Average Change January $0.64 $0.36 77% 100 February $0.64 $0.34 91% 75 March $0.88 $0.29 204% 50 April $1.46 $0.39 274% 25 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average 2014 -2017 2018 18


 
Markets Brazil 19


 
Brazil: Agricultural Powerhouse Brazil Grain and Oilseed Production Million Tonnes 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17F 18F 19F 20F 21F Soybean Summer corn Second corn crop Wheat Cotton Others Source: CONAB and projections from FIESP Outlook 20


 
Mosaic is Logistically Advantaged to Key Growing Areas • Exposure to the Cerrado region • Just-in-time deliveries • Long-term relationship with customers • Integrated logistics 21


 
Post Transformation: Competitive Delivered Basis Brazil MAP Cost Curve 2021 Forecast Delivered Upcountry Mosaic Uberaba 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Source: Mosaic Thousand Tonnes 22


 
Markets Potash Outlook 23


 
Key Prices Move Up Potash Prices $ Tonne KCl 475 450 425 400 375 . Strong broad-based demand growth 350 325 . Optimized/restructured operations 300 275 250 . No immediate threat from new capacity 225 Source: Argus 200 175 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 fob NOLA fob U.S. Corn Belt c&f Brazil c&f SE Asia 24


 
Strong, Broad-Based and Less Volatile Demand Growth Mil Tonnes KCl Global Potash Shipments 70.0 Source: IFA, CRU, Mosaic and Company Reports 65.5-67.5 67.5 . After declining during the two previous years, we 65.0 65.0 estimate that global MOP shipments jumped 6.8% or 4.1 million tonnes KCl to 65.0 million in 62.5 2017. Shipments are forecast to increase 60.0 another 2.6% or 1.7 million tonnes to 66.7 million 57.5 this year. 55.0 . In its outlook report released at the end of 52.5 February, CRU estimated that MOP shipments totaled 65.5 million tonnes in 2017 and projected 50.0 that shipments would increase to 66.6 million 47.5 tonnes this year. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 25


 
Strong and Broad-Based Demand Growth Mil Tonnes Brazil MOP Shipments Mil Tonnes China MOP Shipments KCl KCl Chinese shipments also are 10.5 18.0 Source: ANDA, Mosaic and Company Reports 10.0 Source: CRU and Mosaic trending up due to record crop 16.0 9.5 Brazil demand continues its production as well as efforts to 9.0 14.0 8.5 upward march driven mainly by improve nutrient balance. Higher 12.0 8.0 steady increases in soybean domestic MOP production met 7.5 10.0 7.0 production. Shipments are much of the recent growth, but 8.0 6.5 forecast to breach the 10 million domestic output likely has 6.0 6.0 5.5 tonne mark this year. plateaued, implying strong growth 4.0 5.0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F in import demand. Mil Tonnes North American MOP Shipments Mil Tonnes India MOP Shipments KCl KCl 6.5 India shipments are beginning to 11.0 North American shipments surged Source: FAI, IFA, and Mosaic Source: IPNI, DOC and Mosaic 6.0 recover following 2010/11 subsidy 10.5 to 10.5 million tonnes KCl in 2017 5.5 10.0 changes that resulted in a near due to a strong fall application 5.0 9.5 tripling of retail potash prices. season and early positioning of 4.5 9.0 Higher crop support prices and 8.5 2018 needs. On-farm demand is 4.0 8.0 expected to stay stable this year, 3.5 initial forecasts of a normal 7.5 3.0 monsoon rainfall also are aiding 7.0 but shipments are projected to 2.5 the recovery this year. 6.5 drop to about 9.8 mmt this year. 2.0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F Mil Tonnes Mil Tonnes Rest of World MOP Shipments Malaysia+Indonesia MOP Shipments Indonesian and Malaysian KCl KCl 6.0 22.0 Source: IFA and Mosaic shipments also have trended 5.5 Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic Shipments outside the “Big Six” 21.0 5.0 upward with surges in 2011 and 4.5 20.0 countries/regions have taken off 2014. Gains are driven mostly by 4.0 19.0 led mostly by other Asian and 3.5 increases in palm oil production, 3.0 18.0 other Latin American countries as but positive rice profitability also 2.5 17.0 well as a doubling of African use 2.0 has helped to underpin potash 1.5 16.0 during the last five years (albeit use in this region as well as in 1.0 15.0 from a low starting point). 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F other Asian countries. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F Indonesia Malaysia 26


 
Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2018) Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic Muriate of Potash Low High (Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding) Million Tonnes (KCl) 2015 2016 2017E 2018F 2018F Comments 2017 shipments were revised down to 14.6 mmt due to lower production (7.3 mmt production plus 7.3 mmt net imports). 2018 shipments are projected to rebound to 15.8 mmt (7.5 mmt production plus 8.3 mmt net China 16.4 14.0 14.6 15.6 15.9 imports) due to high crop prices, moderate potash prices and low channel stocks especially at NPK plants. CY 2017 shipments were revised down to 4.4 mmt based on the final import statistics. 2018 shipments are forecast to increase to 4.6 mmt due to higher minimum support prices for key crops, moderate K prices, a India 4.1 3.9 4.4 4.5 4.7 stable rupee, workable import economics, and initial forecasts of a normal monsoon this year. 2017 shipments were revised up again based on final import statistics. Shipments are expected to increase in Indonesia+Malaysia 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.0 5.2 2018 due to still favorable palm oil and rice prices and the expectation of normal rainfall this year. Shipments to this region jumped in 2017 led by big gains in Thailand, and Vietnam. Demand continues Other Asia 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 buoyed by good weather, favorable policies, OK crop prices and moderate K prices. We estimate that shipments dropped in 2017 as a result of elevated channel inventories and the aftermath of W. Europe 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.9 the drought in southern Europe last year. Shipments are forecast to stay in the 4.8 mmt range this year. Shipments here are following the increase in agricultural output. Demand is underpinned by mostly favorable E. Europe+FSU 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.3 5.5 weather, strong local-currency crop prices (bolstered by still weak currencies) and moderate K prices. Based on 2017 ANDA statistics, shipments were revised up to a record 9.7 mmt last year (.49 mmt production plus 9.20 mmt net imports). 2018 shipments are expected to breach the 10.0 mmt mark due to Brazil 8.8 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.2 continued good weather and positive agronomic and economic demand drivers. 2017 shipments were revised up as a result of broad-based gains in Central and other South America Other L. America 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.1 countries. Shipments this year are forecast to stay flat due to continued positive farm economics. 2017 shipments were revised up slightly due to another strong fall application season and early positioning of 2018 needs ahead of announced price increases. In 2018, on-farm use is expected to stay flat at higher new N. America 8.8 9.4 10.5 9.6 9.8 normal levels, but shipments are projected to drop to 9.8 mmt as some tonnage shipped late last year. Africa accounted for about two-thirds of the increase last year. Shipments are forecast to increase modestly Other 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.9 this year with additional but less robust gains in Africa, Oceania and the Mideast. Final statistics for 2017 show that shipments surged 6.8% or 4.1 mmt to 65.0 mmt last year. All regions except Western Europe posted gains last year. Shipments this year are forecast to increase to 65.5-67.5 mmt Total 61.7 60.9 65.0 65.5 67.5 with a point estimate of 66.7 mmt, a gain of 2.6% or 1.7 mmt.


 
Supply and Demand Scenarios Potential Potash Supply/Demand Changes in 2018 Price Scenario Mil Tonnes KCl Low Likely High Shipment Increase 1.00 1.70 2.50 Met from Drawdown of Producer Inventories 0.60 0.50 0.40 Supply Net Changes Price Scenario 1.90 1.40 0.95 Low Likely High ICL Boulby Closure -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 Garlyk Ramp-Up 0.15 0.10 0.05 K+S Bethune Ramp-Up 1.25 1.00 0.75 Eurochem Usolskiy Start-Up 0.65 0.50 0.35 Eurochem Volgakaliy Start-Up 0.05 0.00 0.00 Supply Surplus (+) or Deficit (-) 1.50 0.20 -1.15 . Demand/shipment swing factors − How much did 2017 steal from 2018 in North America? − Will crop prices hold up? − Will China post a big gain in shipments as forecast for this year? . Supply swing factors . Are FSU producers topped out for now? . How quickly will new capacity ramp up this year? . Will Canadian producers further optimize operations? 28


 
Record Canpotex Exports Required to Meet Record Demand Mil Tonnes Canpotex Exports Canpotex Sales by Destination KCl Calendar Year 2015-17 Average 12 Source: Canpotex 11 Rest of 10 World Brazil 13% 25% 9 Other Asia 8 16% 7 India China 6 10% 18% 5 Indo/Mala 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 18% . Canpotex exported a record 11.6 million tons in 2017 in order to meet the big jump in global demand last year. . Exports are projected to increase to another record this year. Shipments likely will climb to 12.0-12.5 million tonnes in 2018. 29


 
Five-Year Outlook: Strong, Broad-Based and Less Volatile Demand Growth the Key Feature MMT MOP Global Potash Shipments Change in Potash Shipments 2017 vs. 2010 Change in Potash Shipments 2022 vs. 2017 75 China 7.4% China 3.2% Source: Mosaic, CRU Brazil 5.2% 70 Brazil 3.0% Other Asia/Oceania 4.9% India 5.9% 65 1.5% North America Europe/FSU 2.6% Indonesia/Malaysia 2.9% 60 Other Asia/Oceania 3.1% 8.2% Africa Indonesia/Malaysia 2.6% 55 Other Latin Amer 2.8% Africa 8.0% Europe/FSU 0.4% 50 Other Latin Amer 2.0% Rest of World 0.1% Rest of World 1.9% 45 India -4.5% North America -1.6% -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Mil Tonnes KCl -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 40 Mil Tonnes KCl 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 22F (Percentage is CAGR) Source: Mosaic and CRU Outlook August 2017 (Percentage is CAGR) Source: Mosaic and CRU August 2017 Actual High Forecast Low Forecast Likely Forecast CRU - February 2018 . By our count, global shipments increased 2.9% per year or 11.9 million tonnes from 2010 to 2017. Growth Global Potash Shipments was erratic with most of the gain coming in 2014 and 2017. Shipments increased in four years and decreased in three years. India was a drag on growth due to subsidy cuts and a tripling of retail MOP Mosaic Scenario CRU prices in 2010/11. Mil Tonnes KCl Low Likely High Aug 17 2010 Shipments na 53.1 na 53.6 . Shipments are forecast to increase 2.5% per year or 8.7 million tonnes from 2017 to 2022. We estimate 2017 Shipments na 65.0 na 65.5 that shipments surged 6.8% or 4.1 million tonnes to 65.0 million in 2017. Demand drivers continue to look Change 2010-17 na 11.9 na 11.9 positive, and strong and less volatile growth is expected during the next five years given lower and more CAGR 2010-17 na 2.9% na 2.9% stable potash prices as well as continued moderate agricultural commodity prices. An expected rebound in 2022 Forecast 72.0 73.7 74.0 74.9 India shipments and continued growth in China and Brazil are key features of our forecast. Change 2017-22 7.0 8.7 9.0 9.4 CAGR 2017-22 1.7% 2.5% 2.2% 2.7% . The traditional growth geographies - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia account for almost 70% of the projected gain from 2017 to 2022, but other regions such as the former Soviet Union (FSU), other Asian countries and Africa are expected to post notable increases during the next five years. 30


 
Demand Growth Projected to Keep Pace with the Likely Ramp-Up of New Capacity Mil Tonnes KCl Global Potash Capacity vs. Shipments Cumulative Change 2016-22 14.0 Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic . After declining during the two previous 12.0 years, we now estimate that global MOP shipments jumped 6.8% or 4.1 10.0 million tonnes KCl to 65.0 million in 2017. Shipments are forecast to 8.0 increase another 2.6% or 1.7 million tonnes to 66.7 million this year. 6.0 . CRU’s February 2018 estimated MOP 4.0 shipments of 65.5 million tonnes in 2017 and 66.6 million tonnes this year. 2.0 0.0 2017E 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Greenfield Projects Other Expansions/Closures Likely Demand Scenario Low Demand Scenario CRU Demand Forecasts 31


 
Five-Year Outlook: Mosaic Forecasts (May 2018) Mil Tonnes Global Potash Supply and Demand Op Rate . We project no chronic or severe long term supply and demand KCl MOP Capacity, Production and Operating Rate 90 100.0% imbalance. Global operational capacity is projected to increase 7.9 80 95.0% million tonnes from 72.9 million in 2017 to 80.7 million in 2022. This assumes no additional optimization of capacity in Canada or 70 90.0% elsewhere. 60 85.0% . The global operating rate is forecast to dip from 90% in 2017 to 88% 50 80.0% in 2018 before trending slowly upward to 91% by the end of the 40 75.0% forecast period. 30 70.0% . This analysis assumes that global demand will grow 2.5% per year 20 65.0% and that the four greenfield projects in Turkmenistan, Saskatchewan 10 Source: Company Reports, CRU and Mosaic 60.0% and Russia (2) will ramp up based on production estimates in the 0 55.0% table below: 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 19F 20F 21F 22F Operational Capacity Production Operating Rate Mil Tonnes KCl 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Production .35 1.95 3.01 4.23 5.07 6.53 32


 
2021 Cost Curve Forecast 2021 MOP Cost Curve fob Mine at Effective Capacity Brine 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Thousand Tonnes Capacity Source: CRU, Mosaic 33


 
Markets Phosphate Outlook 34


 
Phosphate Margins Move Up in Response to Constructive Fundamental Developments Benchmark DAP Stripping Margin $ Tonne Calculated from Published Weekly Spot Prices 350 . Strong broad-based demand growth 325 . Supply adjustments are taking hold including the temporary idling of Mosaic’s Plant City facility as well 300 as a recent drop in Chinese exports 275 . Slower-than-expected ramp-up of new capacity 250 . Lower ammonia costs 225 Source: Argus . A shift in sentiment 200 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 35


 
Both Higher Prices and Lower Ammonia Costs Have Boosted Margins Phosphate Prices Ammonia Weekly Raw Materials Prices Sulphur $ Tonne Published Spot Prices $ Tonne c&f Tampa $ LT 550 700 175 525 $655 in November 2014 500 600 150 $147 in 2015 Q1 475 450 500 125 $116 in 2018 Q2 425 400 100 400 375 300 75 350 $255 in May 2018 325 200 50 300 Source: Argus Source: Argus 275 100 25 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 DAP NOLA MAP Brazil DAP China Ammonia Sulphur 36


 
Pace of Demand Growth Has Picked Up MMT Product Global Phosphate Shipments DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP 72.5 Source: CRU and Mosaic 69-71 . Global shipments of the leading phosphate products increased 70.0 just 0.8% per year from 2011 to 2016. Shipments increased 2.4% 68.5 or 1.6 million tonnes to 68.5 million in 2017 and are forecast to 67.5 increase 1.8% or 1.2 million tonnes to 69.8 million in 2018. . The pace of demand growth has picked up for several reasons. 65.0 China and India no longer are a drag on demand. Chinese shipments have stabilized, and Indian shipments are back on a 62.5 growth trajectory following cuts to the subsidy that more than doubled retail prices in 2010/11 and cratered demand. 60.0 . Demand elsewhere is strong as a result of the agronomic need to replace record amounts of phosphate removed by record harvests 57.5 during the last five years as well as continued affordability due to stable crop prices and more moderate NPK costs. 55.0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 37


 
Strong Broad-Based Demand Growth Mil China DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Shipments Mil India DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Shipments Tonnes Chinese shipments peaked at Tonnes Indian shipments collapsed 24.0 12.0 Source: CRU and Mosaic following subsidy cuts in 2010/11 more than 22 million tonnes in Source: CRU and Mosaic 21.0 11.0 that resulted in a doubling of 18.0 2014. Growth was driven by high 10.0 retail prices. Shipments are 15.0 support prices for leading crops 12.0 such as corn and a build-up of 9.0 growing again due to high crop 9.0 procurement prices, moderate strategic reserves. Shipments are 8.0 6.0 expected to stabilize in the 18 phosphate prices, a workable 3.0 7.0 million tonne range in the new subsidy, and average or better 0.0 6.0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F policy environment. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F monsoons. DAP MAP NPS TSP DAP MAP TSP Mil Brazil DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Shipments Mil Latin America less Brazil Shipments in the rest of Latin Tonnes Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Shipments 9.0 4.0 Source: CRU, ANDA and Mosaic Phosphate demand in Brazil Source: CRU and Mosaic America dropped last year after 8.0 3.5 7.0 continues its strong upward trend the surge in 2016 that was driven 6.0 driven mainly by steady increases 3.0 largely by gains in Argentina 5.0 in soybean production. The 2.5 following the elimination or 4.0 3.0 growth in NPS shipments – 2.0 reduction of grain export taxes. 2.0 mostly Mosaic’s MicroEssentials – 1.5 Shipments are projected to 1.0 is noteworthy. increase in 2018 due to generally 0.0 1.0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F profitable farm economics DAP MAP NPS TSP DAP MAP NPS TSP throughout most of the region. Mil Asia/Oceania less China and India Mil Africa+FSU DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Shipments Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Shipments Tonnes African demand is taking off (and 10.0 Shipments in the rest of Asia have 5.0 Source: CRU and Mosaic Source: CRU and Mosaic these statistics exclude NPKs) 9.0 increased significantly since 2013. 4.5 4.0 due to good public-private sector 8.0 The biggest gains were in 3.5 programs to boost productivity. In 7.0 Pakistan, Vietnam and Indonesia, 3.0 addition, the pace of recovery in 6.0 but most countries registered 2.5 the former Soviet Union is picking 5.0 increases during this period. 2.0 1.5 4.0 up in response to moderate crop Profitable farm economics 1.0 3.0 prices, weak currencies and a run 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F underpin solid demand growth. 0.5 DAP MAP NPS TSP 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F of generally good harvests. DAP MAP NPS TSP 38


 
Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region (May 2018) Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic DAP / MAP / NPS/ Low High (Numbers may notSource: sum to CRUtotal due and to Mosaic. rounding) TSP (Million Tonnes) 2015R 2016R 2017E 2018F 2018F Comments Numbers may not sum to total due to rounding. Shipments are projected to tick up due to high domestic crop prices and low channel inventories. After peaking at more than 22 million tonnes in 2014, we expect that shipments China 20.1 18.3 17.7 17.7 18.0 will stabilize in the 18-million-tonne range – a bit more than some consultants forecasts. Inventories at the start of the year were at the lowest level in three years and have prompted early and strong purchases in Q2. Positive momentum is expected to continue, aided by a India 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.8 normal monsoon and a small lift in the MRP that has offset the recent decline in the rupee. Our 2017 shipment estimate was pared back based on updated trade statistics. However, channel inventories at the start of 2018 likely were below average given strong demand drivers. Other Asia/Oceania 9.3 8.3 9.2 9.6 9.8 Assuming normal weather, shipments are projected to post a solid increase this year. Our 2017 estimates for both Europe and Russia were revised up based on recent trade and production statistics. A modest drop in shipments is forecast due to prospects of broadly flat Europe and FSU 4.9 5.5 6.1 5.7 5.9 on-farm demand and destocking of the distribution pipeline, particularly in Europe. Assuming normal weather, shipments are forecast to trend higher again in 2018, rising about 3% from last year. Demand is underpinned by recent gains in soybean export prices – boosted Brazil 6.9 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.7 by both fears of a China/U.S. trade dispute and higher CME prices – and a weaker real. We revised lower our 2017 shipment estimate, but have left our 2018 estimate little-changed Other Latin America 2.8 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.8 due to continued profitable farm economics in most regions. Despite the late start to spring fieldwork, early indications are that on-farm demand is holding firm. Steady-to-higher application rates are expected in 2018, and our expectations for acreage remain at 90+ million for both corn and soybeans. We project that shipments will stay North America 8.9 9.4 9.8 9.7 9.9 steady at last year’s elevated level as little volume was pulled forward into 2017. Forecasts for Africa and the Middle East were revised slightly. We project that shipments will Other 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.1 grow at a moderate clip led by continued development in Africa (note NPKs are excluded). Our 2017 shipment estimate is slightly higher at 68.5 mmt – an increase of 2.4% or 1.6 mmt from 2016. We maintain our call on 2018 shipments of 69-71 mmt, with a current point Total* NPS products included in this analysis are those 66.2 with a combined 66.9 N and P2O5 nutrient 68.5 content of 45 69.1 units or greater. 71.1 estimate of 69.8 mmt, a gain of 1.8% or 1.2 mmt.


 
Supply Adjustments are Taking Hold . Mosaic’s idling of its Plant City facility in December 2017 impacts both fundamentals and sentiment. . Later start-up and slower ramp-up of new capacity with commissioning of OCP JPH 4 now delayed until late Q2 2018, but still a significant but needed increase in Moroccan and Saudi exports this year. . Chinese phosphate exports during the last six months (17Q4 - 18Q1) declined 24% or 1.2 million tonnes from the same period a year earlier. The decline is the result of both a strong domestic pull as well as more stringent environmental regulations. Mil Tonnes Mil Tonnes China Phosphate Exports Mil Tonnes China Phosphate Exports Phosphate Exports DA P/MA P/TSP DA P/MA P/TSP DA P/MA P/TSP 12 4.0 12 Source: China Customs Source: China Customs Source: CRU 10 3.5 10 3.0 8 8 2.5 6 6 2.0 1.5 4 4 1.0 2 2 0.5 0 6.1 6.7 5.4 5.3 8.1 11.6 9.5 10.1 0 0.0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Morocco Saudi Arabia 2015=11.6 mmt 2016=9.5 mmt 2017=10.1 mmt 2018 40


 
Fundamentals Math Potential Phosphate Supply/Demand Changes in 2018 Price Scenario Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Low Likely High Shipment Increase 1.00 1.20 1.40 Supply Changes Price Scenario 0.60 -0.30 -1.20 Low Likely High Plant City Idling -1.50 -1.50 -1.50 OCP JPH 3 Ramp-Up 0.60 0.50 0.40 OCP JPH 4 Start-Up 0.45 0.40 0.35 MWSPC Ramp-Up 1.55 1.30 1.05 Chinese Exports -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 Supply Surplus (+) or Deficit (-) -0.40 -1.50 -2.60 Supply and demand changes this year likely will result in a deficit that is expected to support prices and margins at levels that curb a bit of demand growth and boost production and exports. 41


 
Five-Year Outlook: Positive Demand Outlook Global Phosphate Shipments Change in Phosphate Shipments 2017 vs. 2010 Change in Phosphate Shipments 2022F vs. 2017 MMT DA P/MA P/NPS/TSP 80 Source: Mosaic and CRU Phosphate Outlook April 2018 Brazil 6.7% India 4.0% 75 Other Asia + Oceania 4.5% Africa 9.1% North America 2.8% Other Asia + Oceania 2.8% 70 Europe/FSU 3.5% Brazil 3.1% Africa 7.5% Other Latin Am 4.3% 65 Other Latin Am 2.3% China 0.4% Mideast/Other -1.2% Mideast/Other 2.0% 60 China -0.2% Europe/FSU 0.3% India -3.0% North America -1.0% 55 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 22F MMT DAP/MAP/TSP -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 (Percentage is CAGR) MMT DA P/MA P/ NPS /TS P Actual Range Low Forecast Likely Forecast CRU - April 2018 Source: Mosaic and CRU Phosphate Outlook April 2018(Percentage is CAGR) Source: Mosaic and CRU Phosphate Outlook April 2018 Global Phosphate Shipments . Global shipments increased 1.6% per year or 7.4 million tonnes from 2010 to 2017. India was a heavy drag on demand with shipments dropping 2.2 million tonnes during this period due to subsidy cuts that Mosaic Scenario CRU Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP Low Likely High Apr 2017 resulted in a doubling of retail phosphate prices. Demand declined slightly in China with shipments 2010 Shipments 61.1 61.0 increasing significantly during the first half of this period but then declining during the second half. 2017 Shipments 68.5 71.5 . Shipments are forecast to increase 2.0% per year or 7.2 million tonnes from 2017 to 2022. Prospects Change 2010-17 7.4 10.5 CAGR 2010-17 1.6% 2.3% for lower and more stable raw materials costs are expected to help keep phosphate prices at moderate 2022 Forecast 74.5 75.7 77.0 76.5 levels and fuel steady gains. Indian demand also is expected to recover due to high domestic crop Change 2017-22 6.0 7.2 8.5 5.0 prices, a workable subsidy, and a relatively stable rupee. Africa, other Asia/Oceania, and Brazil are CAGR 2017-22 1.7% 2.0% 2.4% 1.4% projected to post strong gains during this period. Source: Mosaic and CRU Phosphate Outlook April 2018 . CRU projects that demand will grow at a much slower rate of 1.4% from 2017 to 2022, but that mostly is the result of their much higher baseline demand estimate for 2017. 42


 
Five-Year Outlook: Mosaic Forecasts (February 2018) Mil Tonnes Global Phosphate Supply and Demand Opr MMT Global PhosAcid Capacity by Country Global PhosAcid Capacity by Country MMT P2O5 P2O5 Acid Capacity, Production and Operating Rate Rate P2O5 60 95% 57 63 Source: Company reports, CRU and Mosaic 62 0.2 56 0.0 0.5 50 90% 61 1.1 -1.0 1.0 60 55 2.1 40 85% 0.7 59 54 58 30 80% 57 53 61.5 20 75% 54.9 56 52 54.1 55 58.6 10 70% 54 51 53 Source: Mosaic February 2018 Source: CRU January 2018 0 65% 50 52 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 19F 20F 21F 22F 2017 Morroco Saudi Other Plant City 2022F 2017 Morocco Saudi China Other 2022F Operational Capacity Production Oper Rate Arabia Arabia . We project that global phosphoric acid capacity will increase less than a million tonnes P2O5 from 2017 to 2022, with Morocco and Saudi Arabia accounting for all of the net increase, but largely offset by the idling of Plant City. Nearly all of the projected increase is on line by 2019. This analysis incorporates just a nominal 300,000t P2O5 net change in Chinese capacity, although we expect a restructuring of the industry with the permanent closure of less efficient plants and higher and more consistent operating rates at cost competitive facilities. . Production required to meet projected phosphate demand is forecast to increase 5.1 million tonnes P2O5 during this same period. As a result, the global effective capacity operating rate is projected to move up from 83% in 2017 to 91% by the end of the forecast period. The projected rate increases in 2018 due to the combination of moderate demand growth and the closure of our Plant City facility that offsets much of the expected ramp-up of new capacity next year. . There are no world-scale projects in the pipeline behind the first four OCP Jorf Phosphate Hubs (JPH 1-4) in Morocco and the Ma’aden Wa’ad al Shamal Phosphate Company (MWSPC) JV in Saudi Arabia. We do not expect additional capacity from either debottlenecking in Morocco or the next round of expansions in Saudi Arabia and Morocco until after the forecast period. This is a primary difference between our forecast and CRU’s, which includes both a new line and debottlenecking at Jorf, as well as the commissioning of a first phosphoric acid complex at Laayoune within the forecast period. 43


 
Five-Year Outlook: CRU Forecasts (May 2018) Mil Tonnes Global Phosphate Supply and Demand Opr Global PhosAcid Capacity by Year Global PhosAcid Capacity by Country MMT P2O5 MMT P2O5 P2O5 Acid Capacity, Production and Operating Rate Rate 70 90% 63 63 Source: CRU April 2018 62 0.6 62 0.2 0.5 60 85% 61 -0.2 0.3 61 1.1 60 1.0 60 50 80% 2.1 59 0.9 59 40 75% 58 58 57 61.5 57 61.5 30 70% 56 56 58.6 58.6 55 55 20 65% 54 54 53 53 10 60% Source: CRU April 2018 Source: CRU April 2018 52 52 0 55% 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2022F 2017 Morocco Saudi China Other 2022F 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17E 18F 19F 20F 21F 22F Arabia Capacity Production Operating Rate . CRU projects that global phosphoric acid capacity will increase 2.8 million tonnes P2O5 from 58.6 million in 2017 to 61.5 million in 2022. Morocco and Saudi Arabia account for all of the net increase, and little new capacity is expected online after 2019. Estimates include the temporary idling of our Plant City facility at the end of 2017 as well as a net reduction of 500,000 tonnes of Chinese capacity during this period. . Production required to meet projected phosphate demand is forecast to increase 2.6 million tonnes P2O5 during this period. The global operating rate dips with the expected ramp up of new capacity in Morocco and Saudi Arabia during the next year but then trends upward during the rest of the forecast period. The projected rate in 2022 is equal to the rate at the start of the forecast period. In other words, CRU sees no deep or prolonged cyclical downturn, and with a bit more optimistic demand forecasts and a more significant restructuring of the Chinese industry the projected operating rate would trend even higher. . There are no world-scale projects in the pipeline behind the first four OCP Jorf Phosphate Hubs (JPH 1-4) in Morocco and the Ma’aden Wa’ad al Shamal Phosphate Company (MWSPC) JV in Saudi Arabia. CRU factors in capacity growth from the debottlenecking existing plants in Morocco, but the next wave of expansions in both Morocco and Saudi Arabia are not expected on line until after the forecast period. 44


 
2021 Cost Curve Forecast 2021 DAP Cost Curve fob Plant at Effective Capacity MOS LA MOS FL 45 Chinese Producers Source: CRU, Mosaic


 
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